The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, constantly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina following the announced non-admission to the »Partnership for Peace« programme at the NATO summit at the end of June 2004 in Istanbul. The most important and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.
Following the announcement of non-admission of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the »Partnership for Peace« programme at the NATO summit in Istanbul at the end of June 2004, various reactions were to be observed, especially in the Republic of Srpska, to the estimations presented by international NATO and EU officials regarding the lack of co-operation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and especially the Republic of Srpska with the Hague Tribunal. The question is who is to be held responsible for this situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina: the authorities at the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina or the Republic of Srpska.
The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that the degree of responsibility is undeniably higher at the level of institutions of the Republic of Srpska than at the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina, although the responsibility of institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina can not be ignored. After three and a half years of leadership, the national parties in the Republic of Srpska (Serbian Democratic Party and Party of Democratic Progress) and since 2002 also the Party of Democratic Action, whose empowerment was substantially backed by the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina who presented the national parties as reform parties and attributed them the characteristic which influenced the firm establishment of their power in the Republic of Srpska, today represent the main hindrance to the admission of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Partnership for Peace programme. The SDS authorities tried to meet the expectations of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina only by words and not by doing what they were expected to do, especially as regards the assumed international obligations such as capturing war crime suspects which is the key international requirement. At secret meetings with international officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, SDS offered full co-operation and promised the realisation or execution of the obligations but pointed out that it would require appropriate time. However, within its party circles and the part of public it controls SDS has denied such commitment often expressing support to those citizens who believe that the handing over should not be executed and that protection should especially be ensured to the most wanted suspect, Radovan Karadzic.
Just to illustrate, there are numerous cases when high officials of SDS such as Dragan Kalinic, President of SDS and of the National Assembly of the Republic of Srpska, fall into a trance singing songs to Radovan calling him to descent some mountains and come to the people, while on the other hand they sign documents in which they commit themselves towards the international community that they are ready to hand over Karadzic as soon as he be found. This conduct of SDS and its high officials was recognised by the public as the policy of deception, sometimes minor and sometimes serious, especially since SDS entered into open coalition with SDA. This kind of behaviour created disappointment among the citizens, especially among the voting body in the Republic of Srpska, and consequently the popularity of SDS fell to the lowest point ever since the party was established - at the moment it has the support of merely 6.80% citizens.
In a large number of towns in the Republic of Srpska where the IFIMES International Institute has carried out the survey of the attitude of the voting body towards individual parties, the citizens recognised the policy of deception and delusion led by SDS which has enjoyed the absolute power in the Republic of Srpska for the past 14 years. The voting body is deeply disappointed with the SDS policy and consequently the citizens increasingly favour the democratic parties in the Republic of Srpska such as SNSD (Union of Independent Social Democrats) and SP (Socialist Party).
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1011 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: June 7 to June 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
The citizens were asked if they believe that SDS is resorting to severe deceptions and delusion of their voters and they answered as follows:
YES ~ 81.30%
NO ~ 7.40%
NO OPINION ~ 11.30%
The citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina are looking for an alternative to national parties, especially in the Republic of Srpska where it is obvious that SDS could loose power in almost 70% of municipalities. The citizens are ready to support the alternative, i.e. the present opposition parties in the Republic of Srpska (SNSD, SP and DNS-Democratic National Union). The people expect the opposition to act in unity in order to achieve the primary goal - to defeat SDS and discontinue its 14-year power. Furthermore, the opposition is expected to adhere to a unified policy and to present common candidates for elections, especially for elections of heads of municipalities. The latter represent a novelty in the election procedure since heads of municipalities are for the first time directly elected. Local elections will be the major test of political maturity of the opposition in the Republic of Srpska and of its preparedness to take over the local government. A split opposition with different conceptions of election campaigns could become easy pray for the national parties and thus prolong their power to the greatest detriment of the citizens of the Republic of Srpska. The international community would then have to prolong its protectorate in Bosnia which is at the moment not in the interest of the international community taking into account the process of accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to European Union.
According to the survey carried out by the IFIMES International Institute, the citizens in the Republic of Srpska hope that the opposition (Milorad Dodik, Petar Djokic and Marko Pavic) manage to achieve common approach at the local elections. If not, the opposition would definitely lose all of its credibility and the immense opportunity for success which has arisen due to the deceitful and delusive policy led by SDS, PDP and SDA.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1011 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: June 7 to June 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Would you vote for the present opposition at the forthcoming elections if the opposition presented a uniform list of candidates?
YES ~ 76.40%
NO ~ 14.70%
NO OPINION ~ 8.90%
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1011 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: June 7 to June 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Would you vote for the present opposition if the opposition parties had a disunited approach?
NO ~ 72.60%
YES ~ 19.50%
NO OPINION ~ 7.90%
The citizens of the Republic of Srpska expect the opposition parties to offer concrete programmes for effective organisation of local administration which should carry out its functions to the benefit of the citizens and whose primary goal should be to reduce poverty and increase economic growth.
The current political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is confusing and marked by severe confrontations of politicians in the public.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 2108 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: June 7 to June 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/- 3
• Territory: Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation of BiH, Republic of Srpska, Brcko District)
What type of politicians do the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina want to be present at the political scene?
CALM ~ 75.10%
CONFLICTING ~ 10.20%
NATIONALISTIC ~ 14.70%
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 2108 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: June 7 to June 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/- 3
• Territory: Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation of BiH, Republic of Srpska, Brcko District)
If the opposition took over the power at the forthcoming elections, what would you put on the list of priorities of the new government?
FIGHTING CRIME, DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY, SECURITY ~ 72.80%
FIGHT TO PROTECT NATIONAL INTERESTS ~ 19.40%
OTHER ~ 7.80%
The IFIMES International Institute has learnt from international diplomatic sources that if Bosnia and Herzegovina is not admitted to »Partnership for Peace« programme at the NATO summit in Istanbul at the end of June 2004, the international community will seriously consider dissolving the partnership with the present leadership in Bosnia and Herzegovina and influencing the ordering of early parliamentary elections.
