The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of a current political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in lieu of the existing political crisis provoked by non-acceptance of the police reform in BiH. The most important and interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis are given bellow:
1. LOOKING FOR AN INDIVIDUAL AND NOT A COLLECTIVE RESPONSIBILITY
The newest events in BiH are connected to the police reform and are opening and actualizing the question and the role of the High Representative in BiH and his »reformers« – the national parties (SDS–The Serbian Democratic Party, SDA–The Party of the Democratic Action and HDZ–The Croatian Democratic Union), which he chose for his allies in the reforms that should have been implemented in BiH over the last few years.
Through the recent phase of negotiations on the police reform it has been shown how fragile the political stability and partnership of the national parties in BiH is, which are instead of turning towards the future returning to the unsolved political questions that were opened by these parties in the far away year of 1990, immediately after the first multi-party elections in BiH. From such extremely opposed conceptions the most tragic and most unhappy conflict in the newer history of the Balkans was born, which took away from BiH more human lives and caused other forms of suffering on a scale that hasn't occurred in this country in no other previous war that passed through. The national parties in BiH, which were only momentarily and seemingly representing their reformist tendencies, remained exclusively tied to the program ideas from their start, which are based on the fact that none of them wishes in such a manner, nor the nation they represent, to see in their constituency members of other nations or to develop with them any form of common existence.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that the national parties are for who knows which time repeating the test that is called the establishment of a reformed police in BiH according to the model of European countries. With the national parties BiH is being represented as a unsustainable community threatening that the stability, which was achieved in the last 10 years becomes threatened in a most serious manner.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that the responsibility for such a situation lies primarily with the national parties and the international community as a whole and especially with the High Representative Lord Paddy Ashdown. He impatiently and with an unreal speed desires to at any cost fasten the process of the reforms in BiH by accepting that the support for realizing such planes would come from the national parties - the carriers of the most brutal destruction of BiH in the last decade of the previous century. It is needed to look for an individual and not a collective responsibility in the political processes in BiH.
The High Representative has with his activity caused an unbelievable fear among the lower local politicians and has especially among the national parties developed a spirit and a mentality of subordination, which is a dangerous threat to the development of a democratic conscience and culture. The International Institute IFIMES estimates that the High Representative, in case he continues with such a practice, is going instead of a role of an architect for a different and newer BiH to leave behind at the end of his mandate and after departing from BiH a situation, which in the heads of the people, Bosnians and Herzegovinians is incomparably worse than the situation that existed at the beginning of his mandate, when he inherited a relatively peaceful and stable BiH from his predecessor Wolfgang Petrisch.
2. WHO IS FINANCING THE NETWORK OF THOSE INDICTED IN HAAG AND HOW?
The newest police reform has additionally complicated the political scene in BiH, from which a serious political crisis developed. A particularly specific turn was made by SDS, which has after years-long cooperative role towards the international community decided to commence returning to their starting extreme positions.
It is obvious that the conference of SDS held in March 2005, which many expected to see as a victory of reform forces ready to accept reform values in BiH society, was only a false dawn. Into the leadership of SDS old, anti-Dayton cadres were returned, which were operating under the mentorship of the most wanted Haag indicted person Radovan Karadzic. Such is a case with the current vice-president of SDS Mladen Bosic from Brcko, who is known as a very close cadre to the top of Karadzic SDS from 1996 and 1997, when SDS under the leadership of Mladen Bosic in Brcko in the most brutal after-war demonstrations in BiH opposed the arbitrary decision concerning the Brcko District in BiH. His advance to the top of the party on the last conference of SDS Mladen Bosic and his supporters obviously had an important influence on the change of the general politics of SDS in relation to the reforms – in this case the police reform, when everything the president of Republika Srpska and SDS Dragan Cavic did in this direction was undermined.
Since by the decision of the High Representative all financing of the SDS party from budget was stopped on all the levels of the government, new understandings show that Mladen Bosic as the director of »Telecom Srpska« in Brcko District BiH is in a most direct manner included into the web of secret financing of the network of the Haag indicted Radovan Karadzic – the facts are showing that from »Telecom Srpska« and »Serbian Forests« through different transactions via private companies and in other ways means are set aside to finance SDS and according to the findings of the International Institute IFIMES also to finance the network of the hag indicted people? The announcements at the time to perform revision of the business activities of public companies such as »Telecom Srpska«, »Serbian Forests« and »Electro Company of the Republika Srpska« are only confirming the similarities with the estimates to which IFIMES came through regularly following the situation in BiH. Now it is quite reasonable to expect an action from the High Representative and the Office of the Public Prosecutor, which by now in smaller cases intervened to replace the officials and investigations were started by the Office of the Public Prosecutor. To this network we should also add »money laundering« into which in addition to local subjects also companies and banks from neighboring states and even some EU countries are included.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that the police reform is of utmost importance for the European future of EU and its outcome will primarily depend on the ability to come to an agreement between the national parties, most of all SDS and SDA on the issue of the character of the reforms and their outcome. For a possible failure of the reforms at this moment the responsibility has to be taken in addition to the national parties also their coalition partners PDP – The Party of Democratic progress and SzBiH – The Party for BiH, who jointly have to take responsibility for the isolation into which BiH and especially Republika Srpska are placed due to the lack of readiness to perform a police reform.
The opposition parties in BiH are momentarily not playing an important role in the process of police reform, even though they have positively participated in an attempt to reach an agreement on the police reform.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that the question of police reform can be solved only within the framework of the institutions of the system, where at the moment the most important role is being played by the ruling national parties SDS, SDA and HDZ, but also their satellites PDP and SzBiH. The national parties and especially SDS in Republika Srpska are trying to put the blame for blocking the police reform on the opposition parties by including them into a parallel dialogue, which was being for over ten months secretly held between themselves and the representatives of the international community. Due to the fear of taking the responsibility for the police reform, SDS is trying through the association of citizens and NGO's, over which they have absolute control, such as the war veteran's organization of Republika Srpska, to elude the responsibility for the necessary reform of the police. This is obviously a new perfidious way of abusing the citizens of RS, who bear no guilt due to the supposed feeling of being threatened and the supposed solidarity with SDS and each time after such a situation pay an extremely high price. This is happening this time as well through the isolation of SDS, which is going to hurt mostly the widest social classes, who live the hardest life in relation to the corrupted leadership of their national parties.
3. SDS IS BY RAISING CHARGES WISHING TO DESTROY
THE OPPOSITION IN RS – DODIK, DJOKIC AND PAVIC
The indictment against Milorad Dodik, the president of SNSD – The Union of Independent Social Democrats, one of the leaders of the opposition is representing a »school« case of trying to destroy the opposition. It is almost certain that the present opposition will form the government on the coming elections. SDS is trying by all means to discredit and destroy the opposition. First of all Milorad Dodik is in the indictment which includes more than 30 points accused for the period when he was performing the duty of the prime minister of RS. It is known that for most of the points of indictment political considerations existed, for which Milorad Dodik cannot bear any criminal responsibility. Later on an indictment was raised against Marko Pavic' leader of DNS – The Democratic National Union, which is being accused of performing the supposed criminal acts while serving as a minister in the Government of RS. As to fully form the indictments against the leaders of the oppositions in the recent period we can observe a media campaign against Petar Djokic, the President of the Socialist party. Through the media campaign against Petar Djokic there is a desire to create an ambient for his discreditation and by thus preparing the public for raising another unfounded indictment. The scenario of SDS is clear: discreditation and elimination of the opposition through raising the indictments and leading a media campaign against the leaders of the opposition. On such a behavior of SDS there is a need for the reaction of the High Representative and the Public Prosecutor of BiH, which should continue the investigation against SDS and their cadres connected to financing the network of those indicted in Haag and the performed crime.
Through sophisticated methods SDS and their president Dragan Cavic succeeded completely to discredit and politically marginalize the party of PDP and Mladen Ivanic – who was until yesterday the most trusted coalition partner.
4. KIRO GLIGOROV MOST POPULAR
In the present day complex situation in BiH more and more often arises the question of choosing a new High Representative or rather the special envoy of EU for BiH, who is going to help to stabilize BiH and its closer rapprochement based on reality to the EU and NATO. Recent visit of the German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to BiH is a clear sign that Germany wishes to have its own diplomat for the new High Representative or rather special envoy to BiH. In the meanwhile, experts on the situation in BiH who take into consideration the historical circumstances believe that Germany due to its negative role in the Second World War in BiH, and especially among the Serbs in BiH, cannot be accepted as a neutral actor in the current social processes in BiH. The same holds true also for France, whose representative would be accepted by the Croats and Bosniacs with disbelief.
Data on the sample:
• sample: random in three stages
• size of the sample: 1.644 respondents (adult citizens of BiH of both sexes)
• methodology: telephone questioning
• period: 9th and 10th of June 2005
• level of reliability: 95%
• control: on 10% of the sample
• standard deviation: +/-3
• territory: Republika Srpska, Federation of BiH and Brcko District of BiH
Whom would you as a citizen of BiH wish to have as a new High representative or rather special envoy to BiH?
Milan Kucan (SLO) ~ 22.10%
Kiro Gligorov (MK) ~ 23.60%
Hans Koshnik (D) ~ 16.40%
Bernard Bajolet (F) ~ 11.90%
Nobody ~ 19.30%
Others ~ 6.70%
On the last congress of SDS (May 2005) Sulejman Tihic was again chosen for the president and has announced a transformation of SDA from a national party to a party of political center of national type in which there is going to be place for all the citizens of BiH regardless of nationality, religion, etc. But, to the most important organs in the party only Bosniacs were elected!?
On the last congress of HDZ BiH (June 2005) Dragan Covic was chosen as a president, who was a replaced member of the Presidency of BiH and was accused of several criminal deeds. By his choice HDZ BiH entered a deep crisis with great danger that through singular accusations against criminal functionaries of HDZ a »criminalization« of the Croat people in BiH would occur. In such a situation a positive role could be played through parties with Croatian identity in BiH, which would well organized and connected be able to represent a serious alternative to the present criminalized HDZ BiH.
5. PREMATURE ELECTIONS?
The International Institute IFIMES believes that due to the process of joining the EU and NATO in the present political situation in BiH it would not be good if premature elections would be called for and considers that it is necessary to commence a procedure of changing the election law, which would be changed before the start of regular parliamentary elections planned for autumn 2006.
