The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, is renowned for its regular analysis of global developments, particularly focusing on the Middle-East, the Balkans, and other significant regions worldwide. A notable contribution comes from Dr. J. Scott Younger, who is the President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and serves as a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board. Dr. Younger's article, “Unpredictable days ahead,” explores the recent events following the changeover in the US presidency.
One month has passed since Donald Trump entered the White House for the second time. One can only add that it has been fairly dramatic, two wars going on, which he said he would put a stop to, and the signing of umpteen executive orders including the of many MAGA supporters involved in the White House riots in January 2021. He still found time to spend weekends at his Florida base, however, and get in a statutory round of golf.
The President surpassed himself when pontificating about the Ukraine war, making seemingly outrageous remarks about his European and UK allies, and having a cruel dig at President Volodymyr Zelensky, all wrong and full of misinformation. One doubts he reads anything and ‘’opens his mouth and lets his belly rumble’’ to quote a fairly common slang phrase. It must have made Vladimir Putin smile and given him satisfaction before peace talks get more serious. So far, he has found he has found routes to get away with it. A solution has always come to hand, for example being self-exonerated as president for several pending court cases to answer charges on a host of issues, including fraud.
It is 26th February, Wednesday, and President Emmanuel Macron of France has been to give the European view of matters, with the war in Ukraine being at the top of the list, and the British Prime Minister will be following on Thursday 27th, separately, to endorse the European point of view and, importantly promise a commitment by the UK government to raise defence spending. Both Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have done nothing to help, Trump said earlier! This week will be interesting to see after Macron and Starmer have confronted the President. Whatever, the Europeans are awakening slowly to the idea that their future safety has to depend very largely on themselves and the US cannot be relied on for aid unless it can be seen to be in their interest. America First!! This may be on hand.
Trump, who looks at the solution to any problem like a real estate deal to be done, its profitability, never mind the people that could be hurt in its execution, has already eyed the valuable rare earth minerals. These can be found in the eastern lands of Ukraine, and are to be used to pay back the US for continued support for the war which he has said he would end. The cost to the West, which he has wrongly assessed, he has taken very much in the US favour, loans and grants being mixed up and Europe getting the short straw. He is correct, however, in saying that Europe has relied on the US too much over the years. The main outstanding issue is that Putin thinks that, as part of any peace agreement, that Russia will keep all or at least the majority of eastern Ukrainian lands that Russia has wrongly invaded, and which holds a good amount of the rare earth minerals. This is not the way that Ukraine thinks, which conjures up a with every party to give something, and Uncle Sam to coordinate and get the rare earth minerals but ensuring that Ukraine is part of the European Union and perhaps NATO going forward. The process will take several months, but the fighting and killing, continuing damage to buildings must stop before the end of the peace agreement. The sooner the better.
It is a sad day when Putin would think, as he implied in a rare speech given the day before yesterday, that he would welcome a return to the old-world order of the US, China and Russia once more dominating proceedings, his interpretation of an extension of Trump’s thinking! I do not believe that is what Trump has implied I his utterings or of what most of the world wants.
The worrying issue is that, because Trump believes he has a good rapport with Putin, he tends to dismiss the latter’s several serious untruths, or downright lies, which Putin puts out as the official Kremlin line, expecting his general populace to believe it, and the difficulties that would descend on them if they didn’t. Trump should note that over half a million Russians fled the country, through the southern borders, when he started the war with Ukraine, either to avoid being called up for armed forces duty or simply for reasons of disagreement with the government. Putin has had to go to China and from there to N. Korea, which Trump visited twice the last time he was in the White House, to get the additional troops he needed to give himself any chance of getting a satisfactory outcome from the war.
Trump has demonstrated a handpicked team which looks like he has copied some of Putin’s play book, that is the gathering to his side a few of the richest men in the world, like oligarchs, and bypassing, where possible, the departments of government, giving them, ‘the oligarchs’, each a fairly- free hand. This will probably rebound on him rather sooner than later.
Elon Musk, the product of a most unhappy and unusual upbringing and reputedly the richest man in the world, has been appointed to lead the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) with the task of cleaning up the main departments of central government and ridding them of any corruption; he is supposed to exert unilateral control over the entire Federal Government. As the British paper, the Byline Times, puts it ‘’Elon Musk’s unchecked consolidation of power over government infrastructure, financial systems, AI governance and digital media does not serve the interests of the Trump administration or the broader conservative movement -----his actions demonstrate that he is not working for Trump or the Republican Party but rather for his own power and the broader neo-reactionary agenda’’. The rest of the article is more troubling. How long will the Trump-Musk partnership last? Months? Year or two?
The other war Trump has stated that he would stop is that in Gaza between the Israelis and Palestinians, or more correctly Hamas, which is ‘recognised’ as a terrorist organisation by western governments. He has entertained Benjamin Netanyahu, the PM of Israel, in Florida, from which, in a joint press conference, he promised to clean up the Gaza strip, for which he would require the 2m Palestinians who lived there to leave and go to Jordan and Egypt, and then he would build ‘The Riviera of the Middle East’. Mouths fell open at this bombshell!
There are at least two things that are wrong with that statement. First, it is not in Israel’s grasp to grant Gaza; it is part of Palestine. Secondly, the people of Gaza certainly do not want to be uprooted from land which has been in their families for generations, centuries, albeit largely turned to rubble through continual bombing by Israelis. Nor do the Egyptians or Jordanians wish to absorb such a large population of forcibly displaced people who have spent the past year without jobs, hiding from nightly bombing from arms supplied by the US, just surviving with UN aide, parsimoniously let in by Israel.
Naturally, the extremist far-right of Netanyahu’s government, who rather dominate the proceedings unfortunately, were delighted with President Trump’s announcement. They noted that he would be otherwise occupied in the coming period with Putin and the war in Ukraine and used the opportunity to step up the war against the Palestinians. They have illegally taken over a further part of the Palestinian owned West Bank, Jenin, clearing out the township of mostly refugees to provide space for their soldiers. They are also finding excuses to break the ceasefire process and hostage exchange, the first phase coming to an end shortly; the army is once more girding up to continue its operations in Gaza. What action will the Trump administration take?
It is only fair to say that large numbers of Israelis are fed up with the strife and want to see an end to the war, which they rightly see is being pursued for personal reasons. Their voice, regrettably, carries insufficient weight, as often found in similar circumstances across the world with a government holding a tight grip on power, and not necessarily carrying out the wishes of the people.
This summary proceedings of recent events has been underlined by the changeover in the US presidency, with the bringing in of the 47th incumbent to hold this prestigious office, Donald Trump, with all the unpredictability he brings. It can only be seen as a statement in time. It would be a brave man who would predict what will happen in a week’s time never mind a few months. So, watch this space!
About the author:
Dr. J. Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 3 March 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
