The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared a pre-election analysis in view of the upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of Turkey, which is to take place on August 10, 2014. The most relevant and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis entitled “Presidential elections in Turkey: The choice between the future and the past” are published below.
Presidential elections in Turkey:
The choice between the future and the past
High Electoral Board of Turkey (YSK) determined that the presidential elections in Turkey will be held on August 10, 2014. Voting abroad took place from July 31, 2014 till August 3, 2014. The potential second round of elections will be held on August 24, 2014, should no candidate obtain more than 50% of the votes in the first round.
There are 52,695,831 voters in Turkey, of which 2,750,820 voters are located in 126 countries abroad. Most of them are in Germany, namely 1,380,903 Turkish citizens, who have the right to vote. Citizens will be able to vote at 194,310 polling stations in the country and at 56 diplomatic missions abroad.
The upcoming presidential elections are very important for the future of democracy in Turkey. For the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic, since its establishment in 1923, the President of the Republic will be elected directly by the citizens. In the past, the President was chosen by the Parliament. The mandate of the current President Abdullah Gül expires on August 28, 2014.
Presidential elections are like some kind of a referendum on the future of Turkey. They will open a debate about the powers of the President of the Republic. The question is whether there will be a presidential or a semi-presidential system. As it is known, the current Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is favouring the presidential system with broad powers for the President, as it is the case in France.
Elections will have a long-term impact on the future of the country in the next decade, and, on the next parliamentary elections, which will be held in 2015.
For the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic there are three candidates running in the elections. Two are conservative Islamist candidates, while the third candidate stems from the Kurdish minority.
Candidates in the presidential election are:
ERDOĞAN - CONTINUATION OF THE POLICY IN THE PAST DECADE
Erdogan’s election program stems from his project "New Turkey", which focuses on four important points:
His election messages are clearly supported by figures on economic growth and improving living standards of citizens. He has a customized message for each voter. His first message in the election campaign is aimed at secular citizens, who traditionally vote for the opposition.
Prime Minister Erdoğan started his campaign with the first election rallies on July 7 2014, with a speech in Samsun on the Black Sea. Samsun is a traditional stronghold of the secular opposition, and it played an important role in the history of modern Turkey. It is from Samsun that the founder of the Turkish Republic Mustafa Kemal Atatürk started the war for the liberation of Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1919.
Conservative Islamists, who are his constituents, are being adressed by emotional messages. They stress the importance of the return of Islam in public life, while not bringing it in conflict with secularism, which is the foundation of modern Turkey.
Showing unconditional support to the government of ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, the Palestinian movement Hamas in Gaza, Muslims in Myanmar, the hungry in Somalia, the Arab Sunni, and Kurds (Sunni) in Iraq, Sunni opposition in Syria, etc. Erdoğan has become a historic leader of not only Turks, but also of the billion Sunni Muslims worldwide, agitated by attempts of Iran to expand Shiite domination in the Middle East.
His messages to the poor have become an inspiration and hope for the future. For businessmen and foreign investors Erdoğan means both security and stability of their investments.
CONTROVERSIAL EKMELEDDIN İHSANOĞLU
He is a distinguished scholar and former Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which brings together 57 Islamic countries.
If it was understandable and logical that the AKP will choose as a candidate its historic leader, the secular party CHP and the nationalist party MHP, have surprised with their choice of candidate. Analysts in Turkey and abroad did not expect an Islamist candidate like Ihsanoğlu.
His candidacy represents a shift of the opposition to the center-right. This is an ideological coup within the CHP, which proclaims to be a "watchdog" of the strictly secular legacy of the founder of the Turkish Republic Atatürk. The CHP message is intended for traditional conservatives that they also have a candidate, who has dedicated his life to Islam.
Only 32% of CHP party members support his candidacy and only 44 MPs out of a total 123 supported this decision of the party's leadership.For MHP this is an even bigger shock. İhsanoğlu was very close to the Nationalist Party at the beginning of the 70s, before he became a Muslim thinker. The controversial İhsanoğlu was also very close to Erdoğan, until he came into conflict with him regarding the support for the Egyptian military coup in 2013. He was, in fact, the Secretary General of the OIC, which supported the Egyptian army in overthrowing the democratically elected Islamist President Morsi.
In his election campaign he chose conciliatory tones. He wants to be close to the voters, who hate the ideology of CHP and MHP. These are the Islamists, rural farmers, and members of the minorities.
His message to the Islamists is that women's headscarves are no longer a taboo subject. He even announced to the 15 million Kurds, that it is time to resolve their issues. This is in contrast with the ideology of the CHP, which in 1923 banned the wearing of Islamic dress and denied the existence of minorities and their rights to language and religion or belief.
On the economic side İhsanoğlu does not offer anything new with the exception of emphasising his extensive international experiences.
THE UNUSUAL SELAHATTIN DEMIRTAŞ
He is a known Kurdish lawyer and human rights campaigner, and co-founder of the Turkish Association for the People's Rights (TIHV) and Amnesty International. He is a veteran supporter of the beginning of the peace process between the Turkish state and the Kurdish minority. He has an ear for the problems of minorities and marginalized social groups, such as homosexuals. He places great emphasis on the rights of women in rural Turkey.
His campaign is quite unusual for Turkey. As a Kurd, he visited the tomb of Atatürk and said: "I'm loyal to the idea of the Republic and I will preserve social peace and prosperity." Loyalty to the idea of the Republic and Atatürk is controversial because this idea does not recognize the existence of Kurdish and other minorities (Armenians, Arabs, Alawite, etc. ).
In the economic field he emphasizes crafts and trade unions. Visits to various trade unions and chambers of commerce were the beginning of his campaign.
A CLEAR VICTORY FOR ERDOĞAN
Analysts believe that Erdoğan will convincingly win the presidential election. Most think he will win in the first round. Voters want the continuation of his policy in the last decade. Thanks to him Turkey became the "oasis of peace" in the troubled region (civil war in Iraq and Syria, Iran's nuclear program and the threat to the West, instability in the Black Sea, after the Russian annexation of Crimea). Turkish citizens want to preserve the acquisition of all of the positive effects of the current government from social welfare, to good conditions for business, and high economic growth.
Turkish voters do not want to sacrifice Erdoğan and vote for the option that would not have been checked and would represent a kind of transition to unpredictably and an uncertain future. Turkish voters still recall the time when the CHP was in power (several military upheavals, bankruptcies, devaluation of the Turkish lira). The most secular voters will not have the courage to vote for anyone of the two opposition candidates who actually bring uncertainty.
Surveys of public opinion by various agencies for the first round of presidential elections in Turkey:
|
Date |
Agency |
ERDOĞAN |
IHSANOĞLU |
DEMIRTAŞ |
|
7/22 7/21 7/17 7/17 7/15 7/14 7/13 7/12 7/8 7/7 7/7 7/4 7/3 6/24 |
MAK GEZICI SAD ANDY-AR POLLMARK CHP ANAR ORC KONSENSUS LRC METROPOLL GEZICI CHP SONAR ORC |
56 53 53 55 54 39 55 54 58 47 42 43 46 52 54 |
37 38 38 34 38 38 38 37 30 43 33 48 38 40 39 |
6 8 9 9 7 - 8 8 11 4 6 7 7 7 6 |
IFIMES International Institute believes that the presidential elections in Turkey represent a choice for Turkish voters between the future and the past. Erdoğan has in the past decade provided a better future for Turkey, which has stabilized and returned to the regional and global arena. He proved that he is the leader for a new era of Turkish Republic. Such a policy has also created enemies, who do not want a strong and influential Turkey. After the presidential elections there is likely to be a showdown in the political parties. Erdoğan, and his AKP will have to find a new strong leader, who will replace the charismatic Erdoğan in the position of president of the party as well as in the position of Prime Minister, and will continue to present a successful economic policy and growth. The CHP will, in the event of defeat, likely divide into two parties. The presidential elections will be another step in the development of the rising Turkish democracy.
Ljubljana, August 5, 2014
