IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies in Ljubljana has been analyzing the coming presidential elections in the Republic of Montenegro, that will take place on the 11th of May 2003. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:
The population of Montenegro today is composed of 63% Montenegrins, 17% Bosniacs, 9% Serbs, 7% Albanians and 1% Croats. The religious affiliation provides the following picture: 72% Orthodox, 21% Moslem and 4% Catholic. These data are based on the population census from 1991, but the announced census will probably provide more reliable data on the composition of the population. Today there are 662.000 inhabitants, while on the coming elections for the president of Montenegro on the 11th of May this year there are 458.367 citizens with a right to vote. The elections will cost at least 1.3 million Euros.
To become a candidate the candidates had to submit at least 4.569 signatures as a proof of voters’ support. This will be already the third attempt to elect a president, since the previous two were unsuccessful due to a too small amount of the voters who attended the elections, which in both cases did not reach half of all the voters. As a consequence a law was passed according to which for the elections to be successful at least 30% of the electorate needs to attend the elections.
This time there are three candidates on the elections: Filip Vujanovic from the ruling coalition »For a European Montenegro« composed of DPS – The Democratic Party of the Socialist, SDP – The Social Democrat Party and The Bourgeois Party. The next candidate is Miodrag Zivkovic, a political leader of The Liberal Union of Montenegro and the independent candidate Dragan Hajdukovic. The opposition from the pro-Serbian and pro-Yugoslav parties does not have its own presidential candidate.
The election campaign is a campaign of unequal contestants. The absolute favorite is Filip Vujanovic, who is enjoying the greatest support of the electorate and is at the same time the candidate of the ruling coalition »For a European Montenegro«. His elections for the President of Montenegro would mean a continuation of the continuation policy and economic reforms, undertaken by the Montenegrin government under the leadership of the prime minister Mile Djukanovic. Election of Djukanovic would represent a step forward towards independence and proclamation of the independent Republic of Montenegro and a beginning of an end for the state union between Serbia and Montenegro. The present Montenegro government was forced to enter the state union between Serbia and Montenegro that is according to the opinion of IFIMES Institute only a passing solution towards final independence of Montenegro. The election of Vujanovic for the president would further complicate the position for the Prime Minister Djukanovic, since he will be left without a maneuvering space and he won’t be able to blame for the lack of success anybody else, since he will have an absolute power. The economic situation in Montenegro is extremely difficult; there is a general apathy in the society. The Premier Djukanovic government will have to speed the existing reform processes and start new ones with which existing economic development would be fastened and new ones would be started, with which development of economy would be strengthened and the number of employed would be enlarged. New and fresh personnel would have to be taken in, including to the political option of the Prime Minister Djukanovic, since for several years it is functioning only as a troika Djukanovic-Vujanovic-Marovic.
Miodrag Zivkovic, the political leader has only small chances on the presidential elections, since he did not succeed ensuring even the support of the position. His political program is based on the conflict with Mile Djukanovic and his supporters for which as the existing power structure he is not choosing words, including that the government is single-party, mafia-type and criminal. The reputation of the Montenegrin liberals was badly damaged and punished by the disappointing election results on the recent parliamentary elections, in which they connected themselves to the pro-Yugoslav and pro-Serbian parties (which do not have their own presidential candidate on these elections), despite the fact that they are from the beginning of their political activity being classified as the advocates for the independence of Montenegro.
Dragan Hajdukovic, an independent candidate, entered the election race promoting an idea of Montenegro as an ecological state. This time he is entering the lections as the presidential candidate for the fourth time!
On the road to final independence of Montenegro there will be a need to solve the status of Serbian Orthodox Church and the Montenegrin Orthodox Church in connection to the question of autokephality. Autokephalous is a church that is not ruled by any other church and is independently choosing its bishops – including the first one, without a need for anyone’s consent. For the Montenegrin Orthodox Church to become autocephalous it has to receive consent of the »Mother Church«, in this case the Serbian Orthodox Church.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that there are no canonical obstacles for the existence of the autocephalous churches in Montenegro – The Montenegrin and the Serbian one. In the three-years interim period all the opened questions between the two churches should be solved bilaterally, taking into account the fact that the Church in Montenegro had from 1766 until 1920, when the Patriarchy in Pec was established a specific status. It was almost autonomous and was living in the mountains of Montenegro with priests from people according to the canon of the Orthodox Church. The mentioned question should be solved as quickly as possible, since otherwise that could damage the secularity of the Montenegrin state with an impression that the state is favorizing one or the other church.
The independence of Montenegro is connected with events and processes in Kosovo, where they are with their independent processes approaching the total independence. Present Montenegrin government would have to offer its own solution of the Kosovo question. With this we should not forget the clear position of the EU that the borders of the existing countries should not be changed. EU is in this connection more cautious, since it is aware that the change in borders and proclamation of independence of Kosovo could also cause similar scenarios in Catalonia, Corsica, Northern Ireland, Belgium, etc. USA is on the other side in favor of the Kosovo independence, especially due to the strong Albanian lobby. There is also a possibility of a compromised solution in creating a loose connection between Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro. Solving these questions on the Balkans will soon become a very popular topic. American administration desires after the Iraqi intervention to show its ability to solve all the unsolved questions on the Blakans, such as Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia. According with this there will be a need to stop the transfer of the powers from UNMIK to the government of Kosov, to speed the process of solving the question of refugee return, human rights and economic development. On Kosovo in the power all the ethnical groups have to cooperate, which would certainly reduce all the inter-ethnic tensions. We can expect a harsh battle on the diplomatic field in connection to the Kosovo question. For now all the options are opened except the »Great Albania« and the »Great Serbia«, since the USA have clearly warned that they will not tolerate terrorism to accomplish goals. The American war on terrorism is continuing!
The International Institute IFIMES believes that the present government in Montenegro has succeeded in preserving the international trust and good inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations (between Montenegrins, Bosniacs, Serbs, Albanians and Croats) in the Montenegrin society. These in Montenegro have not succeeded the scope and the level of the neighboring countries. At the same time IFIMES is pointing to a too small participation of women in the politics of Montenegro, which could already be noticed during the previous parliamentary elections. Also this time there is no woman candidate for the presidential post.
