The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, constantly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. It has analyzed the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina following the announcement of demonstrations of the opposition to be held in Banja Luka on 23 March 2004. The most important and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.
The announced demonstrations of the opposition to be held in Banja Luka on 23 March 2004 raise concern among the leading structures which are aware that they did very little during the past two years to improve the economic and social situation in RS (the Republic of Srpska) and BiH (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Moreover, they are also aware of the fact that even in the next period they would not be able to do any better since they failed to timely adopt the programmes of economic development which would have included also the changes of the privatization concept (during the present course of privatization, the already war-stricken economy has become completely passive so that the industrial production is at the lowest post-war level with numerous workers being laid off and privatized factories being closed down).
The incapability of the leading structures of SDS (Serbian Democratic Party) and PDP (Party of Democratic Progress) is reflected in their inability to find appropriate investors or to attract foreign capital. They are planning to sell the majority share in the most valuable economic operator in RS (Elektroprivreda RS and Telekom Srpske) which represents an apparent unpatriotic act. The sale of those companies would enable the present government to temporarily resolve some of the open social problems. However, the public strongly opposes the majority privatization of Elektroprivreda RS and Telekom Srpske since there are no economic reasons for such decision.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that the sale of majority state share in the companies Elektroprivreda RS and Telekom Srpske is absolutely unnecessary and that the present government should rather deal with the essential issues of improving the business performance of these economic operators.
The so called protectors of national interests (SDS and PDP) are prepared to sell all the national valuables only to preserve their own position in power. In this they are strongly supported by SDA (Party of Democratic Action) which is their reliable coalition partner.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1211 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: March 10, 2004 to March 12, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Are you in favour of selling the majority state share in Elektroprivreda RS and Telekom Srpske to foreign purchasers?
- NO ~ 73.80%
- YES ~ 18.30%
- NO OPINION ~ 7.90%
It would be justified to wonder why the demonstrations are raising concern. For the first time after several years of separated political acting the three most important opposition parties in RS succeeded in uniting: SNSD (Union of Independent Social Democrats), SP (Socialist Party) and DNS (Democratic National Union). For the first time after several years these parties managed to gain the incredibly large favour and support of the most important associations of citizens, trade unions and non-government organisations. This confirms our earlier surveys in which we found out that the majority of the citizens of RS wanted changes and that they could only see those changes coming if new elections were held.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1211 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: March 10, 2004 to March 12, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Do you support the announced demonstrations of the opposition (SNSD, SP and DNS) to be held in Banja Luka on 23 March 2004?
- YES ~ 80.10%
- NO ~ 9.80%
- NO OPINION ~ 10.10%
Due to the lack of will and continued action to fight crime and corruption which is an evident phenomenon in the society, the citizens' dissatisfaction with the coalition government composed of SDS, PDP and SDA has been constantly increasing especially since 2000 when SDS with mainly SDS and PDP staff regained power.
The citizens' dissatisfaction has also been caused by the unexpected servant-like (submissive, vassal) behavior of SDS and PDP towards the representatives of international community which is evident in the policy of the SDS leaders Dragan Kalinić, president of the National Assembly of the Republic of Srpska, and Dragan Kalinić, president of RS, who, contrary to the constitution of RS and following negotiations, secretly transferred the competencies of RS to the level of joint bodies of BiH which the voting body perceives as national betrayal. The voting body, which had supported those parties and believed they would protect the national interests, was disappointed.
Trying to find a way out of this situation and restore thrust of the citizens, the SDS leading members led by Kalinić and Čavić took advantage of the expulsion from active politics of Mirko Šarović, former member of the Presidency of BiH, and as an act of sympathy gave in their irrevocable resignations only to revoke them later on at the meeting of the SDS Committee. This act reflects the moral qualities of those politicians. The irrevocable resignation in any democratic society means a final position. However, SDS has created an innovation, which is inconceivable in the modern political practice, and thus further degraded the moral political code and additionally undermined the already weakened interest of politicians in BiH.
Regarding this issue the IFIMES International Institute estimates that further conflicts could occur in SDS, namely the eastern part of RS against the Banja Luka part of SDS. This shows that SDS is obviously ready to divide RS into two parts which would also suit some international circles in BiH.
Further problems which SDS and its leader Dragan Kalinić are facing are potential charges against the HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) leaders such as Prlić, Čorić, Stojić, Petković and Praljak, who were at certain point eager to co-operate with the international circles only to be rewarded with the Hague charges. The same destiny might be awaiting some members of SDS among which Dragan Kalinić is one of the most interesting suspects. His readiness to co-operate is therefore not surprising as he is trying to save his own skin without thinking of the interests of his party and of the voters. Aware of the destiny that might await him, Kalinić has started to show an extreme level of nervousness, especially during the meeting of the National Assembly of RS, in a more and more severe and open conflict with the opposition parties.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1211 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: March 10, 2004 to March 12, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Do the citizens of the Republic of Srpska wish SDS to leave power?
- YES ~ 71.10%
- NO ~ 14,90%
- NO OPINION ~ 14.00%
The mere act of announcing demonstrations of the opposition is the proof of crisis in the present government and of disappointment with the results of their policy. The public has shown a strong interest in the opposition parties which are perceived as the only sound alternative that may be expected to achieve concrete results. According to the estimations of the IFIMES International Institute, the opposition parties led by SNSD and SP, which have developed communication with the world and with a large number of related parties in the world, could open new markets for the economy of BiH which is after all the only way out of the present difficult economic situation in RS and BiH. Moreover, talks organized through the mediation of SNSD and SP are underway regarding the participation of companies from RS and BiH in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq.
In view of the announced demonstrations the opposition is facing a new stern challenge. The citizens legitimately expect them to offer new programmes of economic development in BiH. Bearing in mind that at the 2002 election campaign it was only the Socialist Party which had a very concrete programme with several development project we may righteously hope that the protests to be held on 23 March will not be in vain. The opposition parties can clearly state what they can change and how they are going to carry out those changes when they gain power. The role of Milorad Dodik and Petar Ðokić is very important and responsible in this situation.
The IFIMES International Institute is concerned since the leading structures faced with great fear are even thinking of using violent actions in order to provoke alarm and fear among the citizens during the protests by causing individual or collective incidents for which they would accuse the opposition parties as the organizers of the demonstrations. The leading parties could thus accuse the opposition of causing disorder and chaos and consequently weakening RS.
Paddy Ashdown is the first High Representatives for BiH till now who has supported the work of the national parties. He hopes to carry out - together with the national parties - urgent reforms which are of vital importance for the functioning of BiH and all of its structures. However, Ashdown will have to pay a high price for his delusion that the greatest and most responsible protagonists of the war could be reformers in peace. It is well known that the initial and final goal of national parties is to satisfy national needs at the detriment of other nations. Unfortunately, it will be the citizens of BiH, i.e. all of its nations, who will pay a much higher price for Ashdown's delusion. After all, BiH is still the state with the lowest GDP in Central Europe with no clear perspective nor vision for any changes to the better in the years to come.
Offering support to the media such as the »Dnevni Avaz« (»portparole of SDA politics«) backed by the national parties is another sign that the High Representative has made wrong estimations. Ambassador Robert Mason Beecroft, Head of the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina, also co-operates with the national parties trying to carry out together with them the reforms of the educational system in BiH. He has developed a thesis that one generation of young people should be educated and promoted in order to assume the leading role in the society of BiH which means that he would like to incapacitate numerous people who contributed to quality changes by organizing calm parties in BiH. However, relying only on the young is only a new delusion of Ambassador Beecroft since it is the young who grew up during the war and during greatest post-war tensions and who represent the least tolerant part of the population in BiH within all of its nations.
That is why calm political options and people who represent those options must be promoted and supported in BiH. Although even this goal can not be achieved easily, in looking for a possible solution it represents the only hope for a long-term success in BiH.
As the solution in finding a way out of the absolute regime of natiocratic structures, i.e. national parties, and ending the agony of the citizens of BiH, IFIMES proposes, following the analysis of the whole situation, radical reconstruction of an important constitutional and political principle, namely the manner of exercising the right to political organizing. IFIMES believes that the organizing of political parties on national basis should have been prevented already back in 1990 when constitutional changes were made in the former Socialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This mistake should be recognized and corrected although this would be politically painful and unpopular in democratic societies. Many societies protected themselves during the periods of their establishment and development from the negative influences and destructive effects of certain ideologies and policies (e.g. communism in the USA, national-socialistic party in Germany).
The IFIMES international institute believes that serious consideration should be given to the possibilities of constitutional prohibition of political organizing on national and religious basis in BiH. If it has the courage and will to take this way, the international community will be able to help itself as well as BiH. The Peace Implementation Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina can realize this by amending the Constitution of BiH and thus prevent the repeated danger of dividing the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Every day we are witness to the incapacity of the three-national government which has been in power in BiH since 1991. Another proof is present resignation of HDZ from power and its discontinuation of the coalition with SDA with a paralyzing effect on the functioning of the state which creates political instability and discourages foreign investors from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Over half a million unemployed are recorded in BiH and according to the estimations the figure is even higher. Therefore, political organizing on national and religious basis in a society as complex, multiethnic and multireligious as is the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina can not bring long-term stability and positive development.
Should the political organizing on national and religious basis be prohibited IFIMES proposes, as one of the possible models which would enable better political organizing and functioning, the proportional national representation on the election list of each party in accordance with the population structure in the electorate community. In this way, extreme nationalistic and other parties could be eliminated from the political life since the representation of all the citizens (nations) including the minorities must be ensured on the lists in proportion to the population structure. If the international community is to intervene in BiH, this intervention should represent a decisive step towards the normalization of relations in the state and prove the possibilities for establishing healthy structures and creating a stable society in BiH. Extremist forces would thus be defeated and the stability in the Balkans become more certain.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 2489 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: March 10, 2004 to March 12, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Republic of Srpska, the Federation of BiH, the Brčko District)
Do you believe that the national parties are responsible for unsuccessful restoration of the new society of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- YES ~ 84.30%
- NO ~ 9.30%
- NO OPINION ~ 6.40%
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 2489 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: March 10, 2004 to March 12, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republic of Srpska, Federation of BiH, Brčko District)
Do you believe that the international community and the high representative in BiH are responsible for the unsuccess in bih and for the new political crisis which might occur?
- YES ~ 80.30%
- NO ~ 9.90%
- NO OPINION ~ 9.80%
