The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES is on the basis of the newest events analyzing the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) with a special emphasis on evaluating the role of activities of the international community in BiH. The most important and interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis are given bellow:
The international institute IFIMES is on the basis of the announced events in BiH emphasizing that the previously given evaluations on the role of the High Representative in BiH Lord Paddy Ashdown were correct, especially in the part, where he self-initially and without wider European consensus promoted the national parties in BiH (SDS – The Serbian Democratic Party, SDA – The Party of Democratic Action, HDZ – The Croatian Democratic Community) and their satellites (PDP – The party of the Democratic Progress and SzBiH – The Party for BiH) to become reformist powers, founded on crime, corruption and stealing from the citizens and the state of BiH, which is confirmed by the newest series of accusation on crime and corruption against high functionaries from the national parties. The proof of this is that those that are at the Hague courts and Hague prisons at the moment and were there in the past are mostly members of the national parties. From the national parties also come those that are prohibited from entering the EU or USA and also the people against which the BiH Prosecutor and the Prosecutors from the entities started the criminal investigations or raised accusations. Also, all of the functionaries that were replaced by the High Representative Lord Paddy Ashdown come from these parties. Even though the High Representative Lord Ashdown was in the last three years warned several times that it will be fatal for him and for BiH to accept the cooperation and assistance to the nationalists and nationally extreme parties and individuals that consider themselves as a modern European right but have actually very few values that are common with the European right. Lord Ashdown made himself deaf to this remark by claiming that these are legal and legitimate, since the citizens on the elections are voting for them. But this is also not responding to the true situation in BiH, since not even 50% of the citizens went to the previous parliamentary and local elections and the performed researches showed that these citizens do not support the national parties. Lord Ashdown missed the historical opportunity to help BiH and the region in the name of the international community with his authority and the very good starting position that was left to him by previous High Representatives for BiH and the region to free themselves of the destructive political elements, which not only damage BiH but also expand the negative influence on the whole of the European region.
The international institute IFIMES believes that the European People's Party (EPP/ED) should seriously consider closing the door to the national parties from BiH, which are responsible for the war and war sufferings in BiH and which represent themselves as a modern European right. We expect from EPP/ED to think about the present status of the associated members of EPP/ED (SDA, HDZ and PDP), since they are not sharing the common values with EPP/ED.
The international institute IFIMES expects that the EU institutions in as short time as possible limit the influence of the High Representative in BiH Lord Ashdown on the political processes or to temporarily dismiss him since he with his helping the extreme national parties in BiH enabled and affirmed most of the negative phenomena, which are not only destabilizing BiH but the whole of the western Balkans, on which huge sums of tax-payer's money are spent, mostly from the EU and USA.
The support of the High Representative Lord Ashdown to the SDS in the Republika Srpska (RS) is obvious an is given to Dragan Cavic, the present President of RS and SDS, who around himself on the last Conference of SDS (31st of March 2005) gathered in practice confirmed anti-Dayton individuals, such as the newly chosen vice-president of SDS Mladen Bosic from Brcko. He was in the war period an active member of SDS in Brcko, in which numerous war crimes were committed and was the greatest opponent of the arbitrary decision for Brcko and opponent of the restoration of the multi-ethnic rule in the Brcko District in BiH and as the President of the Community Committee of SDS in Brcko led the most aggressive demonstrations in the post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina in mid-1997.
The international institute IFIMES believes that the High Representative Lord Ashdown should react on time and should replace the present vice-president of SDS Mladen Bosic.
THE UNNATURAL UNION OF PDP AND SZBIH WITH THE NATIONALISTS
Besides the momentarily very negative role the High Representative Lord Ashdown has in BiH and the national parties (SDA, SDS, HDZ) that are destructive for BiH, the International Institute IFIMES is pointing to the behavior of PDP and SzBiH, which are enabling the survival of the power of the coalitions of national parties on all the power levels in BiH. It is obvious that all these parties are found in an unnatural alliance with national parties and that these are mostly abusing them for the realization of their own political goals. The voters in BiH recognized that and on the last local elections (2004) these suffered significant losses. Even though these parties were formed in the post-war period when the anti-war ambient, from which the new democratic processes should begin, was being created, they would by nature have to be the allies of the present oppositional parties of the democratic block (SDP – The Social Democratic Party, SNSD – The Union of Independent Social-Democrats, The Socialists, NHI-HSS,...).
The international institute IFIMES believes that the only way for PDP and SzBiH to survive is their public distancing from the national parties and their politics and creating cooperation with the present oppositional democratic block.
NATIONALISTS ARE CREATING A SUITABLE AMBIENT BEFORE THE COMING ELECTIONS
The newest replacements of the high representatives of HDZ are considered to be a »revenge« of SDA, which under the leadership of Sulejman Tihic wishes to neutralize any kind of constitutional autonomy of Croatian politics in BiH. SDA is doing this obviously to create as suitable environment as possible for themselves before the general elections in 2006. Thus the High Representative Lord Ashdown replaced the Croatian member of the Presidium of BiH Dr. Dragan Covic only on the 29th of March 2005, since he was under the hypothec of the organized crime and corruption from the period when he was still Vice-Premier and Minister of Finance in the Government of the Federation of BiH.
The international institute IFIMES believes that the numerous new indictments against the Croatian cadres are trying to open a new phase between the national parties in BiH, which should again to start processes of homogenization around national parties, as it was always done before the elections in BiH.
The work of the investigation commission of the Parliament of BiH on using the donations is still blocked since the means for the work of the commission were not authorized and the High Representative Lord Ashdown has by now not intervened and secured the means for the work of the commission.
The commission for investigating the donations was formed three months ago with a goal to establish where the donations to the country of BiH were used since signing the Dayton Peace Accord up to this day. By the silence of the OHR an impression is created that the OHR is blocking the work of the commission. The commission was named but the national parties in the Parliament of BiH don't want to separate the money for its work. This blockade in the Parliament can be stopped by Lord Ashdown, who by now intervened in many less important questions. The results of the work of the commission would show the crime of the national parties, which is not desired, nor by national parties nor by Lord Ashdown?
THE REHABILITATION OF THE REPLACED POLITICIANS – ASHDOWN'S NEW TRICK?
The decisions of the High Representative Lord Ashdown, which are connected to the replacement of BiH politicians and his announced decision on rehabilitating a certain number of replaced politicians proclaim that there is no transparent and proper procedure for the replacement of individual politicians in BiH. With the replacement in rehabilitation of the politicians the High Representative is more using his own discretion rights, a fact that is automatically creating suspicion about his decisions. The procedure of rehabilitating the politicians is also not legally prescribed in detail so that Lord Ashdown will have to use his discretion right again. The rehabilitation needs to be performed through a specific legal procedure based on the rule of law, which wasn't the case here. With such activities Lord Ashdown is basically negating the construction and existence of a country based on law, which he is publicly supporting in declaring.
It is obvious that Lord Ashdown needs new subordinated and not partners. With rehabilitation he will get a new group of politicians, with which he will try to strengthen the position of the High Representative. Meanwhile, the return to politics of previously replaced politicians will open processes of intra-party struggles most of all in the national parties into which the replaced politicians are returning and whose places were undeservingly taken by their party colleagues, who where at the moment of replacement only second rate or even third rate politicians in these parties.
So, Lord Ashdown is bringing BiH again into the situation in which there is no transparency, legal basis and legal procedure for bringing his decisions without consideration whether we are talking about replacement or rehabilitation of the politicians.
In this moment it is much more important that Lord Ashdown focuses on the struggle against the organized crime and corruption and before all to as quickly as possible bring a decision, with which means will be ensured for the work of the investigative Parliamentary Commission on the Abuse of Donations – which is clearly blocked by Lord Ashdown. With this, a »magic circle« is created in which BiH is always at the beginning and what is the most tragic for the citizens, far from the EU and the NATO. Unfortunately, through the activities of Lord Ashdown the credibility of the international community in BiH is being daily reduced.
»CONCLAVE« ON THE VLASIC MOUNTAIN
The international institute IFIMES believes that the announcements of individual political parties in BiH to start boycotting the contact and cooperation with the Office of High Representative as long as it is lead by Lord Ashdown are worrying. The international community has to as quickly as possible solve this opened question and on time remove from the function of the High Representative in BiH Lord Ashdown and to reform the role of the High Representative due to the new circumstances. The international institute IFIMES believes that the High Representative is still needed for BiH, while it is his role that has to be redefined and his title renamed into a special representative for BiH.
By sending the »used and compromised« politicians to the top of the international community in BiH the credibility of the international community in BiH is daily reduced. Thus the highest representatives of the international community at the time of their mandate tried to build partnership relations with criminal and corrupted political parties and individuals instead of building partnership relations with the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The international institute IFIMES believes that if the international community will not undertake the required steps and will not remove the present High Representative Lord Ashdown and bring to his place some affirmed and respected politician from Europe, without excluding the possibility of bringing a politician from Slovenia or even Macedonia, it will experience an unavoidable and definitive defeat in BiH.
From the 24th to the 28th of April 2005 a sort of »Conclave« of the party leaders will be held on the Vlasic mountain behind the closed doors: SDA, SDS, HDZ, PDP, SDP, SNSD, DNS, The Socialists and The Club Center, where they will be deciding on the demand of the European Commission to sign an agreement on confirming three key principles of the European Commission – that the legislative and budget authorities are transferred to the governmental level, that the police is being organized into functional regions and that the political influences on the police are eliminated.
The international institute IFIMES has at its disposal data that at the mentioned meeting on the mountain of Vlasic in the couloirs a part of the representatives of political parties will talk about an eventual joint boycotting the cooperation with the High Representative Lord Ashdown as long as he is on the top of OHR. This is opening a question whether the international community has a ready answer to such a scenario that is preparing a boycott against cooperation of the BiH political subjects with Lord Ashdown and OHR?
