The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, constantly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina on the occasion of the decision taken by the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lord Paddy Ashdown, to replace 59 influential politicians and individuals in the Republic of Srpska. The most important and interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis are given below:
The decision of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lord Paddy Ashdown, to replace 59 influential politicians and individuals in the Republic of Srpska (RS), mostly members of SDS (Serbian Democratic Party) and partly members of PDP (Party of Democratic Progress), has suddenly led to a complex political situation in RS and BiH. Thus, for the first time after the 2002 general elections, the existence of the current coalition power (SDS, PDP, SDA - Party of Democratic Action) in RS and of the joint bodies at the level of the state of BiH has been jeopardised seriously.
The reason for the recent decisions of the High Representative for BiH was the inability of the authorities in RS led by SDS to find the best solutions for the social problems which have been open for long years, such as the economic and social restoration through adequate reforms, non-cooperation with the international tribunal for war crimes in the Hague and the failure to ensure closer relations of RS and consequently of BiH with the world due to which BiH was and still is far from the key international associations such as: EU, NATO, WTO and others. A high percentage of unemployment as well as corruption, which has become a way of living in RS, are closely connected with the holders of the most important functions and institutions in RS. Due to long years of leadership and complete influence of SDS on the social flows in RS, this entity has changed into a political community, which is controlled from top to bottom by a group of a few tens of people. That group undoubtedly comprises those replaced by the High Representative who had exercised power over the whole structure of government and economy for long years through their functions in the entity or municipalities (the government functioned as a »limited liability company - Ltd«) according to the mafia principles and in a way typical of SDS and PDP. The Federation of BiH is controlled with identical methods by SDA, HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) and partly by Party for BiH (SzBiH). They managed to gain absolute control over the whole territory of BiH, changing BiH into a testing ground for the demonstration of classical mafia regime.
This situation led to the emergence of a category representing 2-3% of the whole population in BiH in which there are outstandingly wealthy people whose capital was generated with the empowerment of the national parties in 1990. That category of people strove and succeeded to control the other 97% of the population keeping them in the position of increasing poverty and isolation from the developed democratic world. Those criminal structures were actually the main financiers of national parties (SDS, HDZ and SDA) and their partners (satellites), PDP and SzBiH.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that by his decision to replace 59 influential politicians and individuals in RS, the High Representative has shown resoluteness. He is the first High Representative who understood the essence of the relations in BiH and by targeting the political mafia structure he showed that the only option for BiH and the way to its salvage from the long years of political and economic agony is the decisive handling of the mafia structure which has been in power in BiH since 1990 and which is equally present in the three national parties and in the three nations. The decision of the High Representative will not be fully effective if it remains oriented only towards SDS since the national parties function according to the chain principle. The action of the High Representative will only be reasonable if it equally affects the HDZ, SDA and SzBiH parties since in that way justice would be served and it would be made clear that the mafia nationalistic structures created by the politics of the national parties are identified as the most responsible for the slow progress and development of the new society in BiH. If the sanctions were only targeted at SDS they would turn the latter into a victim in the eyes of the Serbian nation. This would lead to the homogenising of the Serbs in the SDS politics and, consequently, to the accelerated homogenising of the Bosniaks in SDS and the Croats in HDZ. Bosnia and Herzegovina would remain in the vicious circle of mafia, crime and corruption, far from the modern and democratic world, towards which all the countries in the region (Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia) are turning except BiH. Thus, all the endeavour of the international community to reform the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as the time and money spent to that end would be in vain and the credibility of the international politics in other crisis regions of the world would decrease.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 984 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: July 7 to 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation: +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Do you support the decision of the High Representative for BiH, Lord Paddy Ashdown, to replace 59 influential politicians and individuals in the Republic of Srpska?
YES, if such decision is also made for individuals from SDA, HDZ and SzBiH ~ 69.10%
NO ~ 22.70%
NO OPINION ~ 8.20%
The fact that the reactions in RS were not so strong as might have been expected could be understood and the silent support of the citizens towards the decisions of the High Representative in BiH and at the same time as hope that he would not stop at that decision, since those who were replaced represented in many communities the reign of terror and absolute control over the political and economic flows. Citizens' agreement with the sanctions announced against SDS and PDP clearly shows that the people are fed up with those parties and with the politics which has held them for years in the position of extreme poverty, isolation from the rest of the world and constant feeling of guilt for all the bad that had happened in BiH in the recent past.
That is why the citizens feel the need for new politics which would present the real problems in BiH to the world in an objective way and at the same time find the best methods for resolving the economic, social and political crisis. The only alternative to the present politics in RS and BiH can be the progressive and democratic forces, which are at the moment registered in the political left wing comprising SNSD and SP (Socialist Party) in the Republic of Srpska and SDP in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or the emergence of the new (»unexploited«) political options and individuals.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that the leader of SNSD (Union of Independent Social Democrats) Milorad Dodik is an important political personality in the democratic changes. However, his tendency towards the rhetoric of the national parties in order to attract the voters of SDS would be a wrong approach which would cause the maintenance and emergence of national tensions in the society of BiH. Dodik's SNSD appears to be a liberal party which protects the interests of capital in the hands of the minor part of his party structure, while the citizens expect the left parties to realise the interests and needs of socially most endangered social categories, primarily workers with low income and the unemployed.
The problem of endangered categories of the population in RS is best defined in the programme of SP, however, at the moment this party is not able to initiate profound social changes without stronger co-operation of the left-sided political groupations. That is why it is of vital importance to establish co-operation between SNSD and SP in which SNSD would assume greater responsibility by developing and attracting voters without using national rhetoric. SNSD should not become a sophisticated version of SDS, since there are rumours that Milorad Dodik wishes to create a new pact (partnership) through a direct connection with Dragan Cavic, who took over the leadership of SDS, which would at this moment provide a special form of protection to the endangered and stirred mafia lobby. This would mean the preserving of the same politics against which the High Representative for BiH has taken the decisions. Milorad Dodik would thus let down the opposition and disappoint the citizens which support him at the moment and expect all the opposition parties to act jointly in order to bring about the changes which would lead BiH out of the circle of undeveloped countries without any prospects for the future.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 984 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: July 7 to 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation: +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Do you support the new partnership at the political scene in RS between Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čavić (SDS)?
YES ~ 22.30%
NO ~ 59.80%
NO OPINION ~ 17.90%
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 984 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: July 7 to 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation: +/- 3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Which of the present political structures can ensure economic development, political stability and recognition of the Republic of Srpska?
PRESENT GOVERNMENT ~ 16.40%
UNITED OPPOSITION PARTIES ~ 69.50%
INTERNATIONAL PROTECTORATE ~ 2.90%
NO ANSWER ~ 11.20%
The IFIMES International Institute believes that the current replacement of 59 influential politicians and individuals in RS shows that the international circles increasingly support the idea that political organising and actions on the national (nationalistic) and religious basis should finally be prohibited in BiH and that the present replacements represent one of the phases on the way towards eventual prohibition of political functioning of the present national parties SDS, SDA and HDZ and their allies. This fact is supported by the information which IFIMES has regarding the replacement of influential individuals from SDA, HDZ and SzBiH.
The IFIMES International Institute is of opinion that the High Representative should not repeat the mistake made by his predecessor Wolfgang Petrisch, who prior to the 2000 local elections replaced high officials in HDZ but took no similar action against the SDS and SDA officials. This contributed to the regained influence of HDZ in the Croatian voting body and their triumph at the elections.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 1823 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: July 7 to 9, 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation: +/- 3
• Territory: Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation of BiH, Republic of Srpska, Brčko District)
Would the prohibition of national parties in BiH contribute to political changes in BiH and overall normalisation of the situation in the state?
YES ~ 63.10%
NO ~ 25.20%
I DON'T KNOW ~ 11.70%
The IFIMES International Institute believes that in view of the present formation of political relations serious consideration should be given to the prolongation of the announced local elections in BiH in order to prevent additional destabilisation of the state. It would not be appropriate to organise early parliamentary elections since in the present circumstances it would be the nationalists who would undoubtedly triumph.
