IFIMES - International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies in Ljubljana analyses events in Iran in the light of American and Russian secret diplomacy on both sides of the Persian Gulf. The most important and interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis are given below.
Data on the state:
Official name: Islamic Republic of Iran.
Area: 1,648,000 km2, population: 68.960.000.
Iran borders on Afghanistan (639 km), Turkmenistan (992 km), Azerbajan (611 km), Armenia (35 km), Turkey (499 km), Iraq (1.458 km) and Pakistan (909 km).
The coast is 2440 km long, 740 of which is the Caspian Sea, the rest is the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
Ethnic structure: Persians 51%, Azeri Turks 24%, Kurds 7%, Gelaki and Mazanderani 8%, Arabs 3%, Luri 2%, Balochi 2%, Turkmen 1% and others 1%.
Languages: Persian (official), Turkish, Kurdish, Luri, Balochi and Arabic.
Religious structure: Muslims 99%, of which Shiites 89%, Sunnites 10%, Jews, Christians, Bahayi and others 1%.
Administrative regulation of the state: 28 provinces.
Economy (data from 1999): GDP $347.6 billion, external debt $21.9 billion, GDP per capita $5,300 and oil stocks 99 billion barrels.
Working population: 15.4 million of which 21% are employed in agriculture, 34% in industry and 45% in services. Unemployment: 25%.
Import: $346 billion.
Export: $34,9 billion.
Main foreign trade partners: Germany, Japan, France and Italy.
Transport infrastructure: railway 5600 km, roads 140.200 km of which 49.440 asphalt and 74 km motorways, inland waterways 904 km. Airports: 288, ports: 15.
Pipelines: for crude oil 5900 km, for derivatives 3900 km, for natural gas 4550 km.
Armed forces: 545.600 of which 350,000 foot soldiers, 20,600 navy, 50,000 air force.
War budget: $5,787 billion.
Political system: The main characteristic of Iranian political system is the diversity and numerousness of the seven branches of power whose competence and authority interweaves. All the branches of power are under ultimate authority of (Murshid) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was chosen for the supreme religious leader at the Assembly of Experts on 6th of April 1989. The branches of power are:
Murshid
Tthe executive power: Mohammad Khatamy has been president of the state since 3 August 1997
The Parliament counts 290 deputies elected at general elections; the reformers have 70% of the seats or 170 deputies and the conservatives 30% of deputy seats in the Parliament
Judicial power
Assembly of Experts
Supreme National Security Council
Guardian Council
Political parties: 8.
Independent organisations of the civil society: 12.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Iranian politicians have become aware of the urgency for a reform not only in the political system but including a revision of the all-embracing role of Iran in the »new world regulation« following the great changes in the Middle East.
Since he was elected president in 1997, Khatamy has been aware of the urgency for reforms and, after a fierce struggle with the conservative side, managed to get support for some radical reforms especially in the domestic political field including: freedom of media, opening towards the west European countries after the crisis in relations following the Mykonos affair concerning Germany.
The loudest call for reforms comes from Tehran. On 7th of May 2003, 153 reformer deputies presented a public letter to the Parliament warning the conservatives who have strong control and a decisive role in the other branches of power that they may await the destiny of Saddam Hussein unless they agree to proceed with the reforms in the Iranian domestic and foreign policy.
The reformers demanded urgent changes in foreign policy in order to establish relations with all countries – among others also the USA, as the American-Iranian relations have been a prohibited issue since the diplomatic relations between the two states were discontinued after the occupation of the American embassy in Tehran by the students in 1980 – this is the burning issue of discussions in the field of domestic affairs.
As the first step in establishing the dialogue with the USA, the reformers propose direct quadripartite (the USA, Iran, Iraq, the UN) talks regarding the future regulation of Iraq. This is the first time after the Islamic revolution in 1979 that the USA and Iran take part in direct talks.
The reformers are aware of seriousness of the situation and of urgency of the dialogue with the »Great Satan« as the USA have been called for two decades. The reformers stress the fact that although Iran does not border geographically on the USA, the latter govern two neighbouring countries (Afghanistan and Iraq) and are also present in Turkey, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.
President Khatamy started carrying out reforms with different intensity soon after taking over the power in 1997 which has caused unfriendly attitude of his voters. In 2005 he will stand as a candidate for the second term of office. The president has the majority in the Parliament but the control mechanisms, i.e. unlimited and final power of the other five branches of power (1., 4., 5., 6. and 7.) render his position difficult. Those branches are controlled by the conservatives who have the power to prevent final adoption of any legislative document although it was already passed in the Parliament. The office of the great religious leader, the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts have legislative power to wholly or partly stop any legislative act of the Parliament or the president of the state. President Khatamy proposes radical legislative reforms in order to enable the system or each branch of power to act independently within its legislative framework. He presented two proposals which were adopted in the Parliament. The first legislative change was to extend the power of the president to defend the legislation without impediments and limitations of the Supreme Court. The second legislative change is related to the law on elections and suggests that the election system should not be influenced by the Guardian Council.
Another important public appeal was expressed in Tehran in 2003, but this time it did not come from the president of the state or the Parliament but from a group of intellectuals who have warned by means of a public letter of the danger threatening Iran. Some intellectuals demand that students and journalists who are prisoners of state be released and that the power of the Council of Legislation Guardians be limited. Their appeal has raised the temperature on the streets of Tehran as never before and now both the reformers and the conservatives are aware that a worst-case scenario may come true unless the state changes its domestic and foreign policy. The first reactions were expressed by the conservative leader Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former president of the state and present president of the conservative Guardian Council who believes that the establishment of relations between the USA and Iran are a priority task and proposes a referendum to be carried out on this issue. The results of such referendum are already known – over 80% of the citizens would vote in favour of establishing rapidly diplomatic relations with Washington.
The official reaction of American administration is rather vague. It has only been confirmed that secret talks are going on in Geneva. However, there have been some unofficial reactions expressed by influential institutions in the USA: on 6th of May 2003, the American Enterprise Institute organised a conference on the future of Iran which was attended by the prominent representatives of American politics and Iranian exiles in the USA, among others Republican Senator Sam Brownback, member of the committee for foreign affairs. Brownback appealed to the administration saying that the people of Iran are their ally in the democratisation of Iran and stated that he had proposals for several legislative documents which he would present the Congress for adoption, among others the Iran Democracy Act which can be compared with the Iraq Liberation Act, 1998.
The strongest reactions come from the Neo-Conservatives who have the real power in the American administration. The influential politician, William Kristol in an article entitled The End of the Beginning published in Weekly Standard analyses the American victory in Iraq as the beginning of the great war against terrorism.
Kristol defines the Middle East and Islamic world as the core of the problem while North Korea does not represent a grave threat and can be isolated with diplomatic moves. It is Iran that Kristol foresees as the next fight for democratisation in the Middle East, although he hopes that this fight will not be in the form of a war but the combination of national diplomacy and secret operations.
The third important reaction was expressed on 7th of May 2003 in Moscow by the American state secretary assistant John Bolton, who demanded from Russia to stop supplying nuclear technology to Iran. Bolton's reaction is very important since it comes from Moscow where the IFIMES diplomatic analysts have noticed the cooling of relations between Russia and Iran and at the same time the warming of relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia following the visit of Saudi Foreign Minister, Saud Alfaisal, to Moscow on 9th of May 2003, preliminary to the visit of the crown prince Abdullah to Moscow in the coming weeks. Saudi Arabia was the traditional ally of the USA since the establishment of the Kingdom in 1921 till the terrorist attacks on the USA in which 15 Saudi suicidal terrorists took part. Russia would like to fill the vacuum in Saudi Arabia since the role of Americans there not so important any more after the fall of the Talibs and Saddam Hussein. The Saudis have been giving serious thought to allowing the Russians certain advantages in their ports as the beginning of military co-operation.
The IFIMES Institute believes that Iran is at a turning point. As regards the internal affairs, the parliamentary and presidential elections are to be held soon. Relations between the conservatives and the reformers are becoming increasingly strained. As far as the foreign policy issues are concerned, the American armed forces have surrounded Iran almost at all sides. Iran is under constant pressure of the USA and the demands for the democratisation of the state and revision of foreign policy.
Under those conditions there have been some positive moves on both sides. On 11th May 2003, the Americans disarmed and gained control of the terrorist group Mudjahidin Khalq which had had its base in Iraq for 20 years. President Khatamy visited Beirut in order to define the role of the Lebanese Shiitic organisation Hezbollah which threatens Israel and the peace process in the Middle East.
The IFIMES Institute recommends the USA to continue its policy of exercising pressure on Teheran since such actions of Washington will undoubtedly encourage reform forces in Iran and let the conservatives know that they may await the same destiny as the Iraqi regime unless they continue with the reforms.
At the same time, the IFIMES Institute proposes the Iranian leaders to send more positive messages to Washington such as to:
Not interfere any more in the internal regulation of Iraq and to establish discipline in the SCIRI.
Re-establish relations with Syria and support peaceful relations between Syria and Israel.
Contribute to regulating the situation in south Lebanon which is not controlled by the Lebanese army but by the members of the Hezbollah militia who receive material and military support from Iran.
Stop supporting radical Palestinian organisations such as Hamas and Jihad and to establish a dialogue with the newly elected Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmud Abas. This would be a very useful move and a contribution to the successful beginning of the realisation of the American Road Map Plan.
Iran should unconditionally allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to control the disputed nuclear facilities.
