03.02.2025
Specifically, the “cannon fodder” option is most rational for Pyongyang because it has made a basic strategic shift to South Korea last year, with the constitutional amendment designating it as a hostile state, no longer a part of the Peninsula to be unified. This means that Pyongyang may use nuclear weapons against South Korea’s far superior conventional warfighting capability. This will free Pyongyang from investing in its large and poorly armed conventional forces.
24.01.2025
The appointment of a new EU Special Envoy for dialogue is important, as Miroslav Lajčak effectively ceded control of the process to other actors, failing to establish clear principles for the negotiations or the implementation of the Brussels Agreement. While governments in Pristina have changed, Serbia’s chief negotiator has consistently been President Aleksandar Vučić. However, Lajčak is not solely responsible for the collapse of the dialogue on normalisation.
22.01.2025
Analysts anticipate that Trump's return to the White House will open a new phase in the relations between Belarus and the USA. Belarus is counting on actions from the new US administration regarding Russia and Ukraine, which could help it emerge from diplomatic isolation without significant concessions on its part. Belarus is not at war with Ukraine; it is merely a collateral victim of the West’s conflict with Russia.
16.01.2025
The world failed to support the Syrian people when they were oppressed by the former regime, and now they need the backing of the UN and other international institutions. Throughout the civil war, the global community let the Syrians down, but a historic opportunity has now emerged to rectify these grave mistakes and champion their aspirations for a brighter future. The time has come for the world to stand firmly with the Syrian people.
16.01.2025
The new year promises some changes, particularly with a Trump presidency in the US taking up the reins of government. Trump has said that he will end the two wars that have dominated the news in 2024. How he will do that and the final solution that is tabled will indicate the direction in which the world might go. The situation in Syria at the tail end of the year will mean the Middle East will be news for the rest of 2025 and beyond and probably take diplomacy in an entirely different direction.
12.01.2025
The new American administration under Donald Trump could introduce changes and take concrete steps in US-Belarus relations. From the American perspective, Belarus is likely to remain within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rather than focusing on severing Minsk-Moscow ties, efforts may shift toward containing and reducing Russian influence in Belarus. As a result, the US stance toward Belarus and the potential easing or tightening of sanctions will most likely depend on US-Russia relations.
10.01.2025
In the presidential elections in Croatia, the incumbent president Milanović is likely to a convincing victory. His re-election will not ease the burden of Croatia’s complex and strained internal relations, particularly within the state leadership. He must remain steadfast in championing constitutional patriotism and reclaiming the “stolen” institutions of the state from HDZ. Any deviation from this course risks steering Croatia towards the "Latin Americanisation" of the state.
06.01.2025
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks the end of a political era in the Middle East and paves the way for an extremely complex geopolitical recomposition. This major upheaval, which resulted through a combination of internal efforts, foreign intervention, and regional dynamics, has profoundly altered the balance of power in the region. However, despite this symbolic shift, stability is still precarious and many challenges remain.
30.12.2024
Analysts believe that student protests have introduced a fresh dynamic to Serbia’s social landscape and that this momentum should be responsibly leveraged to drive meaningful improvements across all areas of society. Achieving this requires accountability from all stakeholders and safeguards against the misuse of student protests for ulterior motives. The voice of students should serve as a catalyst for self-reflection and a guiding lesson for the future, firmly aimed at reinforcing democracy.
28.12.2024
According to analysts, Plenković had no choice but to step back from the election campaign due to the impending changes in US foreign policy, effectively ending any prospects of victory for his candidate, Dragan Primorac. So far, Primorac has struggled to emerge from Plenković’s shadow, with most Croatians viewing him not as a legitimate presidential contender but as a mere stand-in for the true candidate, Andrej Plenković.
22.12.2024
The destruction or neglect of Azerbaijani cultural heritage sites, is a critical issue affecting the peace process. Restoration and protection of these sites can serve as steps toward reconciliation by recognizing and respecting the cultural and historical legacies of both nations. Preserving such sites not only aligns with international cultural protection norms but also fosters mutual respect, an essential foundation for durable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
17.12.2024
This analysis highlights the risks posed by selected countries’ proposed constitutional amendments, which aim to strengthen the executive branch through measures like extending presidential terms and reintroducing the PPHN of largest country in SEA. These changes mirror trends in Russia, Turkey, and China, where centralizing power fosters a cult of personality, erodes institutional independence, and undermines democratic principles.
