International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes developments in the Middle East, the Balkans, and around the world. Dr J Scott Younger, President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board, has authored a text titled “Unsettled Times,” in which he discusses recent events in America, as well as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
It is 22nd July, eight days after my grand-daughter’s birthday. The 14th will be remembered not for the Spanish triumphs at the Euro ’24 soccer tournament or the Tennis win of the new kid on the block, Carlos Alcaraz, at Wimbledon, but for the assassination attempt on the life of the Presidential hopeful, Donald Trump. The headlines were graphic, and point to a failure of the security detail.
This plus a rather strange decision, case dismissed, by the relatively untried prosecutor in the case against Donald Trump for mishandling a large number of highly confidential files from the time that he was in the White House, 2017-2021. It puts him in a strong position to win the Presidential election come November. Even other prosecutors are querying the decision which makes it seem that something is wrong with the US justice system, which would seem subject to political aims. Come what may, the decision by the prosecutor would leave Trump free to contest the election and, once elected, the system is such that he can pardon himself from the several other cases outstanding against him. ‘’No one is above the law’’ – except the President! Really?
The last period has not been good for President Joe Biden, glaringly seen as stumbling when walking or speaking. He has been diagnosed with a mild form of covid, but there is no denying there is a groundswell of movement that is asking him to step aside. His powers are obviously waning, and it is doubtful if he could withstand another 4 years in the White House. The US domestic economy has been sound during the Biden years, he has embraced the forces of climate change, somewhat controversial in the US, but his foreign policy has been decidedly patchy. Afghanistan, the Ukraine war, and more recently the Israel- Palestine conflict. At last, a few days ago Biden realised the groundswell of Democratic opinion against his standing again, and resigned effective the end of his allotted term in January 2025. He immediately endorsed his Vice-President, Kamala Harris. The Democratic party quickly offered their support and the coffers were filled with $81 million for her campaign.
Trump has chosen J D Vance, Senator from Ohio, as his Vice-Presidential running mate. He represents the working- class Americans, once a strong opponent of Trump, now an ally. His credentials so far make him an America-first candidate which does not auger well for the complex world which faces the nations normally allying with the US. The next few months will tell.
The Democratic party have finally obtained a sound and honourable candidate, free from convictions for serious misdemeanours, and showing leadership qualities. Have they left adequate time for Harris to show her potential, and the electorate, particularly the undecided, to gather round the Democrats?
Meanwhile, the ongoing places of conflict, the Gaza strip and Ukraine, bubble along. PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli troops are carrying on as ‘normal’ in Gaza, now that the US is occupied with domestic affairs, bombing school targets ostensibly while seeking one Hamas leader and with no thought towards collateral deaths of innocent Palestinian women and children sheltering in a place designated as a refuge. The UN International Court of Justice have called out these heart-rending crimes and the illegal Israeli land grab in the West Bank. But until much stronger measures are put in place, like drastically reducing the supply of arms to Israel, particularly by the US, imprisoning Netanyahu as promoter of these wrongdoings, then forcing Israel to contribute payment for some of the rebuilding of Gaza as part of the 2-state solution, an idea long in the planning, Gaza will continue to be bombed and innocent women and children killed. It is not known, at this stage, where the Republicans stand on the Gaza conflict – non-interference? Trump was a robust Israeli supporter in his previous stint, but the conditions are different now.
The Republicans or more accurately Trump has said he would seek an end to the war in Ukraine. He reckons he has a good rapport with Vladimir Putin. Irrespective of this, Putin is unlikely to give up much or any of the land he has gained, albeit illegally, nor is Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely to cede territory. Somehow one sees a trade off since the war cannot go on for ever, a price for ceding to Russia a portion of land – the land of East Ukraine is rich in wheat, and for Ukraine, war reparations, immediate membership of NATO, with US support guaranteed plus rearming Ukraine. In addition, a joint committee of high-level empathetic Ukrainians and Russians is formed to work together for the years to come with the remit to produce a peaceful and profitable border land, say called Ukrussaine! And become a model for a bigger potentially looming threat, climate change.
George Friedman’s (2009) book considered the world political development over this century – ‘’The next 100 years’’. He thought that, looking forward, the US would dominate world affairs for most of the century, and only in the last quarter would other players become strong enough to exhibit a challenge. That forecast did not see a situation of the US appearing so divided already that people are worried that the scenario does not descend towards civil unrest, two seriously opposed factions. We Europeans and other nations are watching carefully the drama unfold, as does Putin the East and other members of the BRICS bloc. Where do we go after that?
About the author:
Dr J Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 1 August 2024
[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has Special Consultative status at ECOSOC/UN since 2018 and is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”.
