The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, is renowned for its regular analysis of global developments, particularly focusing on the Middle-East, the Balkans, and other significant regions worldwide. A notable contribution comes from Dr. J. Scott Younger, who is the President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and serves as a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board. Dr. Younger's article, “Today’s Perspective,” explores the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and its influence on the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
The last few weeks have been some of the most unusual that have taken place. Two wars continuing with no end in sight, not to mention internal disputes in Sudan and Myanmar which seldom draw press attention, swamped by almost constant news over the US presidential election. The presidential election was the strangest that the US had ever held, a person charged with many misdemeanours, Donald Trump, albeit a former president himself, representing the Republican Party against Kamala Harris, the current Vice-president of the opposing Democratic Party. All the way through, the polls said the result was too close to call. The result, however, astonished most people, and concerned many others across the world. Trump won by a big margin, and the Republicans for the upcoming 4 years have a total grip on the legislature. He will have authority to push ahead with his programme with little domestic opposition to stand in his way.
In the latter days of Trump’s campaigning, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man by all accounts, appeared at his side on the stage, prancing around like an over grown schoolboy with too many toys that he did not know what to do with. Presumably, he has a suitable arrangement that will help Trump with outstanding personal issues in return for a job in Trump’s cabinet management team. Musk has to make the civil service slimmer and more efficient to carry out the Trump programme; in charge of ‘draining the swamp’ that is Washington! He has years of experience to bring to the job!!
As the cabinet team is chosen, one person who must cause some concern in Middle East quarters is the ambassador designate to Israel. He does not believe in a two-state solution. nor does he believe in a country called Palestine. This must be music to Netanyahu’s ears; he can go ahead with all his plans, squeezing out their neighbours, the indigenous people. The Israelis have been clearing the northern part of Gaza of Palestinian people and intend to take over the land with the aggressive settlers, who came down recently to have a look at their ‘new property’.
Neither UN staff nor foreign media have been allowed into Gaza, and they have been given 3 months to get out completely. The Israelis say that they are meeting their obligation for humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza, but all parties say it is simply not so – less than 20% of requirement. The citizens of Gaza have to put up with a daily bombing and continued loss of life, just in case they want to stay! The Israelis say they are bombing Hamas targets, although all the damage caused is usually a school building providing shelter for homeless people, mostly women and children, a further few killed. President Biden has two months left in office to do something about Gaza and the Palestinians, but nothing will be done. He will continue with his weak, hopeless foreign n policy that has marked his time in office ever since the undignified scramble out of Afghanistan leaving the Afghanis in the hands of the Taliban.
The squeezing out of the Palestinian people on the West Bank continues unabated. The far-right settlers come down from the north, armed, with the Israeli military standing by. The settlers give the locals, who generally have owned and farmed the land for generations back to the days of the Ottoman empire, are given a week to leave, resistance being threatened at gun point and worse, imprisonment and sometimes shooting. The UN marks it down as another point to take up as a criminal act by the Israeli Government, some day in the future, to take to the Court of Human Rights, and the west stands by for leadership and action by the US. However, with the new US ambassador coming in next year the situation can only become worse for the Palestinians because the Trump presidency would appear to back the Israeli position. The Palestinians side say they will resist but how?
Trump stated that he would bring peace to the Middle East, which is good. But how does he get the Israelis to understand what is needed and not their current stated goal to dominate the whole territory, which was once known as Palestine. Now it is a far cry from what they agreed to in 1948 when they were given the right to assume ownership of a fair slice of the land. The President-elect has a good rapport with the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and would seem to encourage him by appointing a pro-Israel ambassador designate. Hamas and Hezbollah are designated terrorist organisations by the US and west, but we forget that Israel aggression in the past brought them about. We can only hope that Trump sees things as they are and can bring about a just and fair peace. Most Israelis want the same. An escalation of hostilities, albeit they are mostly one-sided, will risk bringing in other players and expansion of the war. Trump has an opportunity to show the just side of the US in world affairs.
The other war that will require Trump’s early attention is the rather longer war, 3 years that the Russians, thanks to Vladimir Putin, have put on Ukraine. It is hard to believe that in the early years of this century, Russia and the west were approaching a reasonable level of if not total détente. Something happened in 2004, Putin, who had control of the Kremlin by that time, changed and the west were to be viewed as the competitors, sometimes aggressively. Everything became answerable to him, even the oligarchs. Perhaps he felt that Russia was not getting the respect it was due and he felt it was his duty to restore the pride in nation that it had in Peter the Great’s Day. That meant some ‘empire’ of lands lost when the Iron Curtain collapsed had to be regained, e.g. Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, and so on. It was not unhelpful that a percentage of oligarchs’ earnings came back to the Kremlin/Putin. Putin, by all accounts is a very wealthy man, and many people have died because of his ambitions. The lesson of history!
However, Putin is a ‘good’ friend of Trump’s from all accounts, telephoning him with congratulations of his election success. If this is properly used then Trump could use this to end the war, although a fair amount of comprise will be needed, which will not greatly please Volodymr Zelenskyy. In stopping the outflow of US$, as Trump has indicated, both NATO and Ukraine will suffer. Perhaps a compromise, however unsatisfactory in some quarters, will be agreed involving a monitored border as indicated previously. The war will hence cease.
Some of Trump’s early appointments have been described as shocking, laughable, and unbelievable, even by many Republicans. These are defence secretary, Pete Hesgeth, health secretary, R F Kennedy, and attorney general, Matt Gaetz. They, like Musk, have little or no experience of the job they are supposed to be doing. It is very apparent that personal loyalty to Trump himself is more important than job experience. The defence secretary designate perhaps feels ‘threatened’, because the heads of the armed forces at the Pentagon have higher rank than he achieved when he was in military service, although a decorated war veteran, and he is seeking their replacement.
Interesting times
The next seven weeks will see a transition with world leaders adjusting to the quite different tone of the US presidency. In addition, a sign of the times, the recently completed meeting on climate change, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, was like a ‘damp squib’. It was a failure, most of the key countries for greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) were not present, the US, China, and the leader of the host country boasted about Azerbaijan’s development of fossil fuels. I predict that if there are any more Climate Change meetings they will be totally different in concept. We shall have a US administration under Trump for four years going full bent on drilling for fossil fuels; they don’t believe in Climate Change. They have centuries of fossil fuels readily available and they are going to use them to benefit the economy – America First. China, while it uses 50% of the world’s coal produced are investing extensively in solar panels and have started to invest in clean nuclear, and gradually will make a transition to renewables. They have embraced the electric car market, while the American market for electric cars has stalled.
Interesting times, if concerning.
About the author:
Dr J Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 26 November 2024
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives."
