The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, conducts regular analyses of developments in the Middle East, the Balkans, and globally. In response to Milorad Dodik's (SNSD) unconstitutional actions and the escalating political and security crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), IFIMES has conducted an analysis of recent developments. From the extensive analysis "Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Two US plans for the Balkans and BiH at odds with expansionist concepts?", we highlight the most important and compelling excerpts.
The US-led trilateral initiative involving the US, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia has made Milorad Dodik (SNSD) uneasy, prompting him to take reckless actions that could ultimately lead to the dissolution of the Republika Srpska (RS) entity. The plan envisions Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia joining NATO and the EU simultaneously, pending the outcome of negotiations between the US and the Russian Federation. The most significant concession to Serbia would be the option to maintain military neutrality, with EU membership contingent upon granting the US access to rare metal deposits. Dodik has been excluded from these negotiations.
The US has drafted another “non-paper,” currently held at the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Sarajevo, outlining its second plan for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The plan envisions a new territorial reorganisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina into regions, effectively dismantling the existing entities. All parties abandon their previously declared objectives. A version of the Marshall Plan is introduced, but the three dominant national leaders are removed from the political scene. Truth and reconciliation commissions are established, drawing on the experience of South Africa. All EU accession requirements are being met, and special ties are being dismantled.
A notable aspect of the plan is Türkiye’s role in implementing US policies. Interestingly, the US has entrusted the role of mediator not only to the OHR and the High Representative but also to the EU. What is really at stake here?
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent statement that Türkiye, as a full EU member, could help the European Union overcome its crises—whether economic, political, security-related, or regarding its international standing—has opened "Pandora’s box”. Analysts believe that Türkiye is making serious preparations to integrate into the EU’s security and economic framework, particularly following its military operations in Syria and an agreement with the pro-American Kurdish SDF, which controls a quarter of Syria with the support of 2,000 US troops. Türkiye has now been given "free rein" for a historic return to the Balkans and the EU. As a member of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) in Bosnia and Herzegovina and an active part of international military forces in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, Türkiye—backed by both the US and Russia—is poised to become a key player in resolving the crises in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Türkiye is positioning itself as a key EU partner, leveraging its political, intelligence, and military-security ties not only with Ukraine but also with Russia, the US, and particularly with Islamic countries, from Saudi Arabia and Iran to Iraq, Qatar, and even the UAE. While Türkiye maintains strong relations with both Serbia and Croatia, the current geopolitical landscape necessitates a strategic concentration of its military and intelligence presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a counterweight to expansionist ambitions—not only from Serbia but also from Croatia, Hungary, and Albania. Türkiye is poised to assume the role of a guardian of Balkan borders and a guarantor of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. We highlight a recent statement by the President of the Republic of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in which he affirmed that Türkiye will not allow a repeat of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s suffering from the 1990s: "We will continue our initiatives until a lasting solution is achieved. I hardly need to say that we will not hesitate to take a more resolute stance if necessary. The Türkiye that existed during Alija Izetbegović’s time as Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is long gone. Today’s Türkiye is different. That is why the steps we take will also be significantly different," Erdoğan said.
It is worth noting that, with Türkiye’s support, Azerbaijan reclaimed its occupied territories in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, restoring its full territorial integrity and sovereignty. This underscores Türkiye’s determination and expanding influence.
Hungary’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Levente Magyar, remarked, "The West always makes decisions about Eastern Europe without any real knowledge or understanding of its history."
"Hungary is right next door, just 70 kilometres away. The days when Hungary was merely a passive observer are over. We have chosen a policy based on understanding, in opposition to the West’s agenda," he added.
Naturally, those 70 kilometres extend across the territory of the Republic of Croatia, and it is well known that Hungary has laid claims to parts of Croatia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. According to some sources, the United Kingdom is determined to prevent any redrawing of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s borders and is prepared to respond militarily, equating Viktor Orbán with Vladimir Putin.
Analysts warn of possible future actions by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Slovakia, as he appears willing to engage in further destabilisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina as "reinforcement" and support for Orbán’s efforts and activities in the country.
The so-called Troika leaders (SDP, People and Justice (Narod i pravda), and Our Party (Naša stranka)) have played a role in furthering Milorad Dodik’s secessionist policies. Driven by a desire for political positions, they have readily complied with the wishes and demands of Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZBiH). Their incompetence and inaction, aligning with Dodik and Čović’s plans to dismantle Bosnia and Herzegovina, have caused immense damage.
Their resignations from state positions would be the most effective course of action for Bosnia and Herzegovina until US plans are set in motion, while the formation of a government of experts is now imperative.
The dysfunctional governance of the three so-called troika leaders (Nermin Nikšić, Elmedin Konaković, and Edin Forto) has eliminated the opposition in Republika Srpska, and as long as Dodik remains politically active, problems will persist. Regrettably, "the majority of political Bosniaks" made efforts to support Dodik in the proceedings before the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has resulted in a disappointing verdict.
Dodik’s associates, enablers, and “supporters” are literally copying the plans that Radovan Karadžić (SDS) once devised with Slobodan Milošević, now seeking to codify them into law through the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NSRS). Particularly active in this effort is Siniša Karan, whose role is reminiscent of Biljana Plavšić. Dodik is steering Republika Srpska towards its demise, as the West will not repeat the mistakes of Richard Holbrooke and the American Democrats, who legitimised an ethnically cleansed territory as an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina. American Republicans are unlikely to make the same error at a time when they are working to resolve global conflicts and establish new relations with Russia and China. Serbia is also at risk. The protests in Serbia are, in part, a byproduct of Dodik’s hostage politics—a tactic Karadžić previously used to pressure Milošević—until both ultimately found themselves in The Hague at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) as war criminals.
Bosnia and Herzegovina presents an opportunity for the EU to steer clear of new problems. Leaving the Balkans under exclusive US patronage would deal a significant blow to the EU. If the incompetent Troika (SDP, People and Justice, and Our Party) fails to include opposition parties from Republika Srpska in the government, the High Representative in BiH (OHR) should take steps to ban Milorad Dodik from political activity, thereby facilitating the implementation of planned measures. The EU must take an active role in safeguarding Bosnia and Herzegovina and laying the groundwork for lasting peace and long-term stability in the country. Analysts argue that deeper cooperation with Türkiye is the most viable strategy for the Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina. "European security without Türkiye is unimaginable. Europe is failing to maintain its status as a global power due to its exclusion of Türkiye from the Union," Erdoğan stated.
Just as events in Germany are always closely observed and analysed—given its role in triggering two world wars—caution is equally warranted in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any signs of radicalisation in Germany raise concern and heightened vigilance worldwide.
Analysts argue that the unfolding situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina demands both caution and concern—not only due to historical precedent, as the 1914 assassination of Austro-Hungarian heir Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo served as a catalyst for World War I, but also because, in the more recent past (1992–1995), Bosnia and Herzegovina was the victim of a brutal war and military aggression. If such a conflict were to erupt again, it would no longer remain localised but would escalate into a Europe-wide war with unpredictable consequences, posing a real and imminent threat. The ongoing crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not merely a political issue but also a serious security concern.
Ljubljana/Brussels, Washington, 6 March 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
