The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, is renowned for its regular analysis of global developments, particularly focusing on the Middle-East, the Balkans, and other significant regions worldwide. A notable contribution comes from Dr. J. Scott Younger, who is the President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and serves as a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board. Dr. Younger's article, “2024 - A year of unrest and uncertainty,” explores the events in the 2024.
The year, 2024, has drawn to a close. A year of two wars continuing, pockets of strife in several other places across the world and people on the move trying to get away to a safer, more secure future. The western world was also concerned with domestic problems, venting their frustration occasionally quite volubly.
The western world’s leading country, the US, were going through a self- inflicted period of lack of direction, An aging Democrat President, Joe Biden, who increasingly exhibited absent mindedness, was determined to stand again for re-election to the White House, the presidential elections looming. Meanwhile, the Republican opposition had a candidate, Donald Trump, with a list of misdemeanours against his name, some quite notable. He was the immediate past president, prior to Biden, in the period 2017-2021 and proved to be unpredictable, a maverick. The other western powers were somewhat fearful of what they would have to face; diplomacy would be fully tested!
There was a twist in the tale, however. Biden, after growing pressure from Democrat party top brass and some belated self-honesty took the rather reluctant decision to step down when his term of office expired in January 2025 and nominated his Vice- President, Kamala Harris in his place. Following early encouraging noises from the party and electorate, however, Harris was well beaten by Trump on election day and thus we have the second Trump presidency to look forward to in 2-3 weeks’ time.
In the first half of the year the war in Gaza really got under way, following the iniquitous attack by the Hamas faction of Palestinians from the Gaza strip on Israelis on 7th October 2023. This event and the aftermath dominated news channels for over half the year, even overtaking the 2 ½ year-old Ukraine war as main news. President Biden paid an early visit to meet his Israeli counterpart, Benyamin Netanyahu, to express his sympathy and assuring the Israeli Prime Minister that Israel had the full support of the US for whatever he needed to do. Biden added that he was proud to be a Zionist!!
This was all the Israeli PM wanted to hear and other western nations followed the US lead, albeit some reluctantly. There would be full rearming of Israeli defence forces, as required. Accordingly, Israel have continuously bombed the cities of Gaza and still do. Gaza, once home to 2.5 million people, is mostly a mass of rubble and, to date, some 48,000 have been killed, mostly from the air. Israel ground forces have largely taken over and are busy clearing the north of Gaza in preparation for Jewish settlers to take possession. It is part of the extreme right wing, who have a significant influence on the Israeli government’s actions, plan to move the Palestinians out. This is something they have been doing to the Palestinians who have dwelled in the West Bank for decades, with the silent blessing of governments, but probably more marked with the current incumbents.
On more than one occasion, the UN, some of whose humanitarian people in place have been killed in Gaza, largely the result of airstrikes, have tried to put a stop to the war and criticised how it has been carried out, only to have any vote taken by the General Assembly vetoed by the US. And so the war goes on, the Israelis unabashed as the bombing and killing take their toll.
Hezbollah, the other Palestinian so-called terrorist group, but based in S. Lebanon to the north of Israel, in solidarity with Hamas, decided to step up their intermittent aerial bombing attacks on Israel resulting in Israel committing its 6th invasion of S. Lebanon on 1st October 2024. Israel extended its bombing campaign to Beirut in Central Lebanon hitting some buildings and killing some 750 Lebanese citizens while aiming for Hezbollah targets. The war continued until 27th November when a cease fire was agreed, brokered by France and the US. Some border skirmishes continue between Hezbollah and the IDF. Israel once more turned its main attention on Gaza.
Several times the State Secretary of the US Government, Antony Blinken, has voiced hope that an agreement, brokered usually by the Qataris/Egyptians, has been reached by the Hamas and Israeli governments, for that to be rejected by one or other of the parties.
The two-state solution was brought forward by Jimmy Carter when he was the US president in the late 1070s. He died, aged 100, just before the New Year, a few days ago, and much admired for his continual efforts to bring peace to many situations around the world. The two-state solution has been aired as the solution for the future on more than one occasion, but there are extremists, particularly on the Israeli side, who are dead against the proposal and who only see the short term. There is no trust and there are difficult times ahead.
The developments in the US made the headlines towards the end of the year, Donald Trump being his usual ungracious self and people were watching to see how they could perhaps anticipate his actions. They did not have long to wait as he started to pick his key advisers and cabinet positions, the key attribute being loyalty to the president.
have to be endorsed by the new Congress, however. A key feature of these is the number of extremely wealthy men, billionaires that he has chosen. One wonders if Trump is taking a lesson from Putin’s playbook, who surrounded himself with wealthy oligarchs, two decades ago, they holding in return key positions of state, with a nice steady payback to the President. However, some of Trump’s choices have yet to learn to keep their mouths closed, one in particular.
At the beginning of the year, Vladimir Putin was struggling. Very many Russians, particularly those ripe for military call up, had fled the country, mostly through the open borders to the south. The war (special military operation!) with Ukraine had reached a stalemate and he had to find other means to make progress. After some arranging with President Xi Jinping of Chine, he finally obtained his extra soldiers from N. Korea and his troops appear to be gradually making some progress. The Ukrainians are short of personnel but remarkably give ground slowly and reluctantly. As it is, it is not a tenable position long term; the restrictions imposed by and on NATO, with Ukraine still waiting to be admitted to membership, are difficult for them and frustrating. Putin threatens dire consequences, e.g. nuclear, when Ukraine tries to use more advanced types of weaponry delivered by the US/NATO. Meanwhile, Russia gets its needs, drones from Iran and arms and replacement troops from N. Korea.
The new US Administration, about to take office, is hinting that they hope that this year sees the end of the war, and soon, probably with Ukraine ceding some territory. Care will have to be taken when and if boundaries are to be redrawn because eastern Ukraine covers a significant amount of rich agricultural (wheat) land and holds other valuable resources. There will probably need to be a lengthy period in which the border will have to be guarded by a UN body.
Putin would probably regard his intent with the BRICS bloc as making some progress. The 16th Summit of the bloc was held in Kazan, Russia, on the 22nd – 24th October where new members, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran and the UAE joined the original 5 members of the bloc; the UN was in attendance. As the original 5 members – Russia, China, India, Brazil, and S. Africa – already comprised countries which made up about 40% of the population of the world, the bloc’s lends belief to trying to be a trading alternative to the western nations with all continents except N. America included. A significant outcome of the summit was the agreement to form BRICS partner countries, expanding the bloc. Just at the end of the year.
Putin was undoubtedly caught by surprise at the events in Syria, where a group, once seen as associated with Al Qaeda, moved fast and toppled the fiercely authoritarian government. The President, Basher al Assad, fled the country to asylum in Russia, his main source of support. In general, people were not sorry to see al Assad, who was a corrupt, self-serving, and cruel but weak individual, kicked out. Despite its unlikely background, the leaders of the new grouping are saying the right things to bring all parties on board, and there are several disparate groups of different views and religious beliefs that will have to be accommodated. Syria is a badly torn country, with influential neighbours of different persuasions who have used and use the country for their own ends. The new group that has taken charge should be given some cautionary support, perhaps with a strong UN or EU backing. Success will have a profound effect on the region, but – and there always is a but – Putin won’t take the loss of influence kindly and will somehow find a way to meddle. The first few months of 2025 will be interesting and defining.
The US must find a different word than ‘terrorist’ to describe people that have apparently cleaned up their act and want to go forward on a progressive path. Actions in Israel make one wonder as to who are carrying out terrorist deeds.
The above news stories tended to keep out other issues that affected people elsewhere. In Sudan, the terrible civil war continued with people dying and fleeing the country. The situation is desperate and the UN is assisting as much as it can, but this situation needs strong intervention to resolve and bring the warring factions to the peace table and keep the outside influences supporting pro- and anti- government interests at bay.
Close-by Yemen is in a dire situation. The country divided between Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, are fighting a long- range war with drones and missiles aimed at Israel and likewise the Israelis are fighting back with targeted bombing on strategic sites. Sana’a, the capital of Yemen, with a long and significant history because of its strategic location overlooking entry to the Red Sea, is in a desperate plight. It is high up, 2,200m, and desperately short of water, such that the UN, which is deeply involved, is constantly calling for aid. It is expected to run out of water in 2025 with a people quite divided.
Georgia is again showing signs of restlessness, the new prime minister leaning towards Moscow while most of his country want to join the EU, with demonstrations taking place. Putin feels that the country ought to be in his orbit, after all Stalin came from Georgia! The issue with Georgia can be repeated for several countries bordering Russia, Putin thinks that they should look towards Moscow for historical reasons and not towards the west. He does not feel therefore that it is wrong to interfere in matters of state and try to persuade members of their government to follow the Moscow line. Using AI for questionable reasons, but any western country is fair game.
Myanmar is difficult to enter, not encouraged for foreign media reports, and thus we are not properly aware of the internal strife going on. It is almost 4 years since the military in February 2021 under General Min Aung Hliang, exercised an unexpected but successful coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi (The Lady, as she is popularly called). The action and subsequent acts of repression and worse have been widely condemned by the UN. The military have moved around the country carrying out unspeakable acts on villages suspected as opposition to the dictatorship, rape, pillage and arson, not forgetting the Rohingya. In a sense, the current military activities are effectively a continuation of the 2017 action on the Moslem minority by the military egged on by the Buddhist majority in Rakhine state, next to Bangladesh. This is a complex story, which needs a separate fuller treatment. Suffice to say, the military government has the backing of China, resources mining in the north and allowing the Chinese free passage to the Indian Ocean and thence to the rich resources found in sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, General Hliang is allowing ‘free democratic’ elections to take place in February coming up and, as a gesture, he has freed about 6,000 from 28,000 prisoners, mostly held because of dissent. He has also executed 4 agitators. The outcome of the ‘free’ elections can be foreseen; it is only following a timetable. Meanwhile an armed opposition is growing. The UN and ASEAN watch and wait as do we, and Suu Kyi languishes as a prisoner.
The new year promises some changes, particularly with a Trump presidency in the US taking up the reins of government. Trump has said that he will end the two wars that have dominated the news in 2024. How he will do that and the final solution that is tabled will indicate the direction in which the world might go. The situation in Syria at the tail end of the year will mean the Middle East will be news for the rest of 2025 and beyond and probably take diplomacy in an entirely different direction.
We will probably become a little more aware of the growing problem of freshwater, a wake- up call at least. However, the difficult but mundane issues will still be with us, such as poverty. Space exploration may divert some of our thinking, but by the dawn of 2026, we will still be battling the same problems but some of them, the two wars, for instance, from their outcomes may have altered the direction of
About the author:
Dr. J. Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 14 January 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
