The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, constantly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in view of the local elections to be held on 2 October 2004. The most important and interesting sections of the comprehensive analysis are given below.
The IFIMES International Institute has recently been expressing concerns regarding the increasingly complicated political situation in BiH (Bosnia and Herzegovina) in view of the coming local elections on 2 October 2004, which has been continually aggravated through the actions of the national (nationalistic) parties in BiH: SDA (Party of Democratic Action), SDS (Serbian Democratic Party), HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) and their satellite parties: PDP (Party of Democratic Progress) and SzBiH (Party for BiH), and lately also the important opposition party - SNSD (Union of Independent Social Democrats) with its leader Milorad Dodik. The national parties, which have been reigning over BiH for almost 14 years, have not managed to find the answers to the open transitional questions which have been present in the society of BiH since the beginning of 1990s. For all these years, BiH has not managed to establish a quality state structure which could ensure its longevity, economic development and political stability. Instead, the results of the policy of those parties are: a brutal war, hundreds of thousands of killed, disabled and distressed, destroyed material goods worth several billion dollars, grievous position of pensioners, a high degree of unemployment and deep-rooted national division of the citizens. Moreover, the state is isolated from the world and lags behind in every respect due to which BiH has become one of the least developed regions in Europe. While preserving the power at the level of entities and the state, the same political forces are struggling for power also in the local communities.
According to the IFIMES International Institute this is a worrying fact for BiH. It was expected that the citizens of BiH would have realised earlier the perniciousness of the natiocratic regime and refuse to support them at the elections, opting rather for the leadership of the democratic and progressive political forces.
This could have been quite a realistic option, especially in the Republic of Srpska, when the »Charter on the Future« was signed for the three major opposition parties (SNSD, SP - Socialist Party and DNS - Democratic National Union). However, SNSD leader Milorad Dodik has reduced that possibility after he came to terms with the present President-in-Office of SDS and President of the Republic of Srpska Dragan Cavic in order to prepare his party for the post-election coalition with SDS in a large number of municipalities in the Republic of Srpska. However, the only correct action for SNSD would be close co-operation between the present opposition parties: SNSD, SP and DNS. With high hopes, the citizens expected this coalition to be formed as that would mean that RS finally realised that the past is behind and that SDS policy was defeated. At the same time it would help the Republic of Srpska to withdraw from the coalition and to win the understanding and support of the international community. The responsibility for failing to meet those expectations of the citizens is to be attributed to the utmost irresponsible acts of SNSD leader Milorad Dodik who has opened the door widely to co-operation with SDS.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 884 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: 2 September 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Who is responsible for the lack of unity on the part of the opposition in the Republic of Srpska just before the local elections are to take place (2nd october 2004)?
MILORAD DODIK ~ 71,20%
PADDY ASHDOWN ~ 17,30%
PETAR ĐOKIĆ ~ 2,10%
MARKO PAVIĆ ~ 1,30%
OTHER REASONS ~ 8,10%
The secret agreement between Milorad Dodik and Dragan Cavic concluded in view of the forthcoming local elections indicates a desire to divide the Republic of Srpska into the east and the west part whereby the west part would be dominated by SNSD and the east part by SDS. This would be a fatal combination representing the beginning of a deep political crisis in the Republic of Srpska and its weakening until its complete disappearance.
After replacing a number of criminal cadres in SDS and PDP, President of the Republic of Srpska Dragan Cavic became President-in-Office of SDS but in fact he enjoys no authority nor confidence among the SDS members because of his former membership in the Socialist Party (1994-1997) and his role in the recent replacement of 59 politicians and influential individuals from SDS and PDP. During those replacements Dragan Cavic eliminated his main political competitor Dragan Kalinic and took over the leadership of SDS. At the last elections Dragan Cavic suffered a crushing defeat in the municipality where he lives (Banja Luka, Laus).
According to the forecasts of the IFIMES International Institute, the national parties will, together with their satellite parties PDP and SzBiH, carry out some actions in order to arouse fear among the voting body and thus divide them so that they vote for their respective national parties. This is furthered by the initiative of Sulejman Tihic, President of the Presidency of BiH, to review the constitutionality of the name of the Republic of Srpska. Typically, Sulejman Tihic has been receiving threatening letters just when he needs to homogenise the voting body of Bosniaks before the elections. By homogenising the Bosniak voting body Tihiæ is actually homogenising the Serbian and Croatian voting body through the system of linked vessels. The story of a group of terrorists from Brcko who were sent to Vatican in order to assassinate Pope John Pavel II, whom all the nations in BiH respect, was probably produced in the HDZBiH »kitchen« in order to homogenise the Croatian voting body and inflict irreparable damage on the reputation of the state of BiH.
Having estimated the whole situation in BiH and surveyed the present opinion of the voting body, the IFIMES International Institute believes that the majority of citizens of BiH are interested in changing the present situation and the government and expect the political parties to offer solutions to the most pressing problems in BiH, i.e. unemployment, crime and corruption, and to build an equal society.
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 884 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: 2 September 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska
Who would you vote for if the elections were held today, on 2nd September (on the day of the survey)?
SNSD ~ 17,60%
SDS ~ 15,30%
SP ~ 11,20%
PDP ~ 2,60 %
RADICAL FRACTIONS ~ 4,10%
SDA ~ 4,10%
SzBiH ~ 1,50%
NHI ~ 0,50%
OTHER PARTIES ~ 9,80%
UNDECIDED ~ 33,30%
Data on the sample:
• The sample: random, three-stage
• Size of the sample: 911 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
• Methodology: telephone survey
• Period: 2 September 2004
• Degree of reliability: 95%
• Control: per 10% specimens
• Standard deviation +/-3
• Territory: Federation of BiH
Who would you vote for if the elections were held today, on 2nd September (on the day of the survey)?
SDA ~ 18,20%
SDP ~ 11,10%
SzBiH ~ 8,20%
HDZ ~ 6,60 %
WITH WORK TO PROSPERITY ~ 2,10%
BOSS ~ 3,00%
NHI ~ 1,20%
SDU ~ 1,10%
LIBERALS ~ 0,50%
OTHER PARTIES ~ 11,20%
UNDECIDED ~ 36,80%
The results show that in the Republic of Srpska the voters increasingly support SNSD while their support for SDS and PDP has decreased so that PDP, which has most disappointed the voting body with its actions, will have to fight to remain at the threshold level (of 3%). SP has recorded consistency because it has been paying attention to social justice in an explicit way. The socialists offer solutions for the young, pensioners and unemployed more distinctly than other parties in order to achieve general normalisation of life which places them in the category of moderate parties with good chances of long-term survival on the political scene.
In the Federation of BiH, support to SDA has decreased in comparison with the previous elections among other due to the coalition with SDS and poor results in implementing their policy. SDP's support has increased moderately thanks to its principled policy based on pointing to the weaknesses of the leading national parties. SzBiH has been carrying out a self-interested policy paying attention mainly to the economic interests of its party elite. With the actions taken so far, HDZ has nothing to offer to its voters but the »exclusivity« in the protection of national interests – its main supporter is the leading HDZ in Croatia.
PDP and SzBiH represent the third political block by power in BiH. They are led by their interests and function in accordance with similar principles as G17+ in the neighbouring Serbia.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that the High Representative for BiH Lord Paddy Ashdown will finally deal with the national parties in order to preserve the state of BiH and fulfil the announcement of OHR and High Representative on accession of BIH to the Euro-Atlantic integrations. A high percentage of undecided voters will stir a fierce pre-election campaign during the final part of the election race for their votes.
