IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies has been regularly analyzing the events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES is currently analyzing the demographic movements and the demographic situation in Vojvodina in light of a possible destabilization of this northern Serbian province and is as such proposing solutions, which will contribute to the stabilization of the situation and will use the national communities in Vojvodina as a bridge of Serbia with its neighbors. The most interesting and important sections of the analysis are given below:
Events, which have started on the territory of former SFRJ at the end of the eighties of the previous century, have left traces in the northern Serbian province of Vojvodina as well. The Republic of Serbia or rather the regime of Slobodan Milošević has after the proclamation of the 1989 Constitution abolished the existence of Kosovo and Vojvodina provinces, even though the borders of both provinces were recognized by the federal constitution of Yugoslavia as intrafederal borders within the framework of the existing state and as such represented a special case within the federal state.
Vojvodina is with its extremely varied ethnical, linguistic and religious composition undoubtedly representing one of the greatest jewels of Europe, and is a special case within the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and present-day Serbia. In Vojvodina today, there have been residing at least 17 different ethnic groups, whose presence in this northern Serbian province is recorded for at least 90 years. In addition to this, we can encounter here also the communities of Bulgarians, Montenegrins, Bosniaqs, Macedonians and Albanians, whose arrival could be dated within the period after the establishment of the Yugoslav monarchy in 1918.
At the beginning of the 18th century, when the transfer of Vojvodina from under the Turkish rule to the Austrian rule is completed, in Vojvodina we can already speak of at least five general ethnical groupings: Croatian-catholic, Serbian-orthodox, who in this area develop one of their national centers, Hungarian, Romanian and Romani. In this period we can also observe the remnants of Muslim population, who have not departed with the retreating Ottoman forces, as well as smaller communities of Jews, Armenians and Greeks.
Intensive colonization of these extremely fertile planes of Vojvodina begins with an official blessing at the time of Austrian empress Maria Theresa in the second half of the 18th century, a process that was continuing until the end of the Dual monarchy in 1918. Even though we can encounter these processes also in Slavonia and Barania, which is due to its diversity more like Vojvodina than the rest of Croatia, Vojvodina nevertheless represents a unique example. For this period a settling of diverse ethnical groups residing in the empire is typical. These groups include Slovaks, Czechs, Slovenians, Ruthenians, Ukrainians, Poles, Central-European Jews and of course Germans and Austrians. In Vojvodina we cannot only speak of settling in larger towns and cities, where concentration of diverse groups in one city encourages mixing and assimilation of smaller into larger communities, the emphasis is rather put on the existence of smaller countryside settlements, where a certain ethnical community represents an absolute majority. Thus in Vojvodina we can observe not only Serbian, Croatian, Romanian and Hungarian villages, but also Czech, Slovak, Ruthenian and German ones. This holds true for today as well, when we can still locate villages, where not only traditional ethnical communities are in majority, but even Montenegrins, Bulgarians and Macedonians.
The ethnical make-up has with the establishment of the first Yugoslavia not changed much and according to the 1931 census we find on territory of the present-day Vojvodina 395.000 Hungarians (around 25% of the general population), 341.000 Germans (less than 20% of the population), approximately 100.000 Slovaks and Czechs and 25.000 Ruthenians and Ukrainians. Before the Second World War there were also 17.000 Jews in Vojvodina. An additional meaning to all this is foremost a fact that the Serbs represented less than half of the population and become a majority only after the WWII (in 1948 they represent 50,6% of the population). The World War II and the events afterwards meant for the ethnical picture of Vojvodina primarily the end of two communities, the Jewish and the German. The Jews of Srem and Banat were killed already in 1941, while the Jews of Bacska met the same fate in 1944. Only 2.000 Jews survived the Holocaust in Vojvodina. The German community met its end with the conclusion of the war. Then a large part of the German community leaves with the retreating German soldiers or is expelled by the new authorities due to their cooperation with the occupying forces. Some of them voluntarily depart in later years. Thus in 1948 we can find 32.000 Germans in Vojvodina, while in 1961 only 11.000 are left.
Establishment of the second Yugoslavia brought some other consequences for the ethnical composition of the area as well. On the vacant German areas not only Serbs from outside Vojvodina start to settle, but also Bosniaqs, Montenegrins, Macedonians and members of other nations and ethnicities of the Federation. In general, we could state that the period of second Yugoslavia was very positively inclined towards the ethnic diversity of then Autonomous Province within the Socialist Republic of Serbia, since all the ethnical groups were by the constitution guaranteed all the minority rights, which enabled their cultural and ethnical development and survival. Thus in Vojvodina of that age we can witness tri-lingual official documents, Slovak theater performances, Ruthenian high schools (which were the only ones in the world teaching in that language) and also German radio shows. According to 1981 census, 1.100.000 Serbs (54%), 385.000 Hungarians (19%), 120.000 Croats (6%), 70.000 Slovaks (3,5%), 48.000 Rumanians (2,5%), 43.000 Montenegrins (2,1%), 20.000 Ruthenians (1%), 20.000 Romani (1%), 19.000 Macedonians, 5.000 Ukrainians, 5.000 Bosniaqs, 4.000 Germans, Slovenes and Albanians each, 3.000 Bulgarians, 2.000 Czechs, 1.000 Russians and 600 Jews, in addition to 170.000 non-ethnic Yugoslavs, are populating Vojvodina.
In the 1990’s, when the autonomy of Vojvodina was abolished and when the dark clouds covered the Serbian sky, considerable changes in the ethnic composition of Vojvodina occurred, despite the fact that this area (as opposed to other regions of the former Yugoslavia) did not experience events of mass slaughter or ethnic cleansing. The share of Croats and Hungarians was reduced, while the share of Serbs rose not only due to the emigration of other groups, but also due to a large number of refugees that arrived to this area from Croatia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. While in the case of Croatian community we can talk about emigration due to the national conflict between them and the Serbs, the case of Hungarians is slightly more complex. The number of Hungarians in this period fell not only due to the reduced minority rights and the economic crisis, but also due to the politics of the Hungarian state, which through its legislation encouraged immigration of the Hungarian minorities from all the areas in which they resided outside of Hungary. In addition to this, in this period it is very hard to rely on the data from the 1991 and 2001 census. The data from these two censuses are not only incomplete, since they ceased to mention smaller ethnical groups and because there is a possibility that these data were adapted to the needs of the official statistics, but also because it is known that in cases of national conflicts and a certain measure of repression, members of minorities tend to identify less with their own minority group for the purpose of official identification.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that with the new decade, when the situation in Serbia is being improved daily, we can expect further changes in the ethnical composition of Vojvodina’s population. With democratization of all the regions of former Yugoslavia and with ceasing the armed conflicts in these areas it can be expected that a certain part of the refugee population will commence returning to the locations of their former residence. In case of Vojvodina it means growth in the share of minority ethnical groups. A similar case is known from the neighboring Bulgaria where we are witnessing a process of return for a million of ethnical Turks, who started to return after the conditions improved and when Bulgaria started to enter the Euro-Atlantic connections.
In addition to this, the introduction of market economy and democratic political system in Serbia can mean also that a part of the Hungarian population that moved to Hungary will return. In general, better times are beginning for all the minorities in Vojvodina. As a rule, the introduction of liberal democratic political and liberal capitalist economical system is increasing the urgency and the need for tolerance among the diverse ethnical, linguistic and religious communities, since it is this diversity and the respect for the diversity that represent one of the keys to the success of democracy and market economy, while simultaneously being one of the strongest cards of the region.
The International Institute IFIMES believes that Vojvodina is the new (old) opportunity for the Government of Serbia, which could use the ethnic minorities of the region for connections and cooperation with the neighbors, as the cooperation with neighbors represents one of the preconditions to enter the European Union. A possible destabilizing of Vojvodina will more than destabilize Serbia bring greater external damage, since it would represent a sign to the international community that the conditions in Serbia are not improving and especially a sign to foreign investors not to participate in the privatization Serbia is undergoing, on which depends the economical and political stability of the state or rather of the existing power structure.
With a proper politics of tolerance and multiculturalism, where all minorities are guaranteed all the rights determined by the United Nations, Vojvodina that in her past (with some exceptions) does not know examples of extreme forms of hatred and annihilation, can set an example for cooperation, coexistence and flourishing of all the regions, which are characterized by such a great diversity in the composition of population.
