IFIMES has been as The International Institute for Middle-Eastern and Balkan Studies in Ljubljana analyzing the post-war events in Iraq in the light of daily attacks on American soldiers and the destruction of infrastructure that belongs to the Iraqi people. The most interesting sections of the analysis are given below:
Iraq has after the liberation from the regime of Saddam Hussein become a scene of quotidian attacks against the Coalition soldiers, especially the Americans in the central Sunni part of Iraq. Would this represent only a beginning of an overall Sunni uprising against the Americans, who have marginalized their absolute political role despite them being in minority at the expense of the Shiites, ethnic Kurds and Turkmen, who represent a majority? Or is this a beginning of the activity for the newly established organization Al-Qaida II, which acted out excellently planned and performed terrorist actions in Riyadh and Casablanca? And, not the least, who is giving them support and who is praising their terrorist acts? Would this be the Arab states with some European ones that were opposing the operations to liberate Iraq from the regime of Saddam Hussein?
Attacks on the American troops are occurring exclusively in the Sunnite part of Iraq, stretching from Ramadya and Falujja in the west to Tikrit in the north, including the Sunnite parts of Baghdad till Balada and Baquba. The analysts possess different opinions on the level of organization and the goals of such terrorist actions. Arabic and certain European media, especially the German and the French ones, are presenting these terrorists as rebels, who wish for the Americans to leave their country. Such media are thus trying to prove that the war in Iraq was not a war of liberation but rather a war of occupation. Pentagon believes that these are the remnants of the toppled regime from among the Baath Party members.
The truth is of course somewhere in the middle, or better put, a mixture of all these factors. Followers of these local organizations are former members of the disbanded Iraqi army and the secret services, accompanied by tens of Arab volunteers, who came to defend Saddam’s regime from the attack and are still freely crossing the Iraqi borders from the direction of Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but in all probability also from the direction of Iran. The latter are composed primarily of the Al-Qaida members, who after overthrowing of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan found refuge in Iran. Followers of these organizations are despite the up-to-now mutual ideological opposition among the islamist Al-Qaida and the nationalistic Baath Party united against their common enemy.
The International Institute IFIMES is sharing the views of the American commanders, who claim that the Iraqi summer is going to be hot and that the tendency of culmination of such attacks is growing stronger, a claim confirmed also by the civil administrator of Iraq Paul Brenner in his letter to President Bush in the middle of June 2003. According to the opinion of the analysts of the International Institute smaller groups numbering less than 5 members are performing these attacks. The attacks are being prepared in secret house hideouts within the limits of the inner city center, meaning that practically every house is a potential ambush for the Coalition troops.
In some cities, Falujja for instance, the mosques were turned into minor armories, while the imams (the Islamic priests) have become local commanders recruiting followers to perform such terrorist actions, following examples of the Hamas organization and the Islamic Jihad. Probably the members of these organizations have already infiltrated these groups as well as to offer them their experience acquired through the terrorist attacks in Israel. The American actions of searching after the prohibited weapons in houses and mosques are further hindered by the media attacks of Arab satellite TV networks, which are presenting these searches as attacks against the Islamic shrines and as dishonoring of the Islamic family traditions (while performing house searches). The Arab regimes and some skeptical European politicians share the opinion that these actions are a reaction to the occupation of the country and are expressing their sympathies with the suffering of the Iraqi people. These circles wish for the U.S.A. to loose the war for rebuilding of Iraq and thus prove the legitimacy of their opposition. With this their hypocrisy is exposed towards the solving of the Iraqi question. Thus, for example, the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to the courtyard of the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount is presented as the greatest insult to the Muslims, which inflamed the Palestinian uprising, while at the same time they are denying the mass graves of a million Iraqis. Saudi Arabia herself has in the past two years through diverse religious funds contributed 4 billion dollars in support of the Intifada and proliferation of intolerance over the world, a fact about which a complete report was written for the American Congress by the senators Richard Shelby (R) and Carl Levin (D).
The seriousness and the sensitivity of the situation in which Iraq is found is well understood also by the UN Special Envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello, who has decided to visit the Iraqi neighbors and will probably on the meeting of the UN Security Council on the 22nd of July 2003 demand that the Iranians stop interfering with the Iraqi interior affairs.
The International Institute IFIMES is proposing to the newly elected governing council of Iraq to accept the following decisions:
To open diplomatic missions in the neighboring countries with a focus on the security and economic questions.
To accept the 12th article of the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s vision published in the Wall Street Journal on the 27th of May 2003, which presupposes a de-baathization of the country and healing of the wounds, according to the Eastern European model after the fall of communism.
To immediately establish relations with Israel with rich experience in the economic and security field.
The International Institute IFIMES is proposing to the American civil administrator the following:
To prohibit all the branches of the Islamic humanitarian organizations in Iraq, which are usually under the humanitarian guise performing Saudi-wahabite or Iranian-Shiite missionary activities. The assistance distribution should be entrusted to the international organizations.
To introduce domestic liaison officers to be stationed with every active unit on the ground. Such officers would advice the Americans on the issues of respecting the privacy and other Islamic regulations, which were in the last period a common reason for attacking the soldiers. Exactly in connection to this, for instance, the killing of 6 British soldiers occurred in the peaceful southern Iraq.
To prohibit all the media that are disseminating intolerance – here the experience of Germany after 1945 is valuable, as is the founding of the press council in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Balkans are an American success story after a decade of war and engaging of the politicians, who participated in the construction of Bosnia and Herzegovina (for instance, Westendorp, Klein). The relocation of the American ambassador in Sarajevo Clifford Bond to Baghdad certainly represents a step in the right direction and an implementation of the positive experiences of the Dayton Peace Accord in Bosnia and Herzegovina and her neighborhood.
To support the organizing of civil society in Iraq to promote the liberal ideas, women rights, market economy, tolerance, etc.
The International Institute IFIMES is proposing to the American Democratic Party and the counter-candidates of the president Bush on the next elections not to use the characteristics of the president and his associates (Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Rice, Tenett) for the internal settling of accounts in the pre-election campaign. A failure to stabilize Iraq can destroy all the positive effects of the intervention, a development that can directly threaten the whole Middle East and the American national security.
