The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, constantly analyses events in the regions of the Middle East and the Balkans. Seven months after the liberation of Iraq IFIMES analysed the current events in the country. The most important sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below:
April 9 is undeniably a historical day not only for the Iraqi people but for the whole region of the Middle East. Twenty million Iraqis joined the 4 million Iraqi Kurds who were liberated after the Gulf War in 1991. Masses eager for reforms in the region enthusiastically expected the wind of political and economic reforms in their countries (demonstrations of the civil society in Egypt at the end of August 2003, the first demonstrations in the history of Saudi Arabia in October 2003, elections in Oman, amnesties for political prisoners and reconstruction of the government in Syria, replacement of the crown prince in the United Arab Emirates).
The visitors of Arab forums at the Internet after April 9 were surprised at the liberal and tolerant debates and everybody hoped that the USA would be as successful in the political renewal of Iraq fast as they were in the 20-day war.
At the IFIMES International Institute we received thousands of letters and became the announcers of changes. Everybody wanted to know how the nations of Eastern Europe after the decades of tyranny built their states and started to overcome transitional problems with the help of America and the West. The idyll drew to an end with the increase of terrorist attacks which were aimed not only against the American Army but also against the vital infrastructure related to the everyday life of ordinary citizens.
Terrorist attacks in Iraq intensify every day and according to the Pentagon data there are on average 26 attacks a day. The main concern is their improving organisation, motivation and supply with money and weapons. The terrorists have autonomous command and each group can operate in its area, they select the time and date as well as the location of the attack and their enemy is an unprotected open target (infrastructure, soldiers and Iraqi police). In short, they are a real illegal army which attacks certain targets at their choice which may be of political, military, economic, psychological or humanitarian importance. In this fight the American superiority in technical equipment is losing its meaning since everything depends on the human factor. To achieve their goals, the Iraqi rebels spend millions while the Americans spend billions of dollars.
Perhaps the most important is their recruitment system – most of the recruits are former members of the dissolved Iraqi army and intelligence services, members of Palestinian terrorist organisations and the fugitive members of Al-Kaida from Afghanistan.
American members of the infantry force research centre from Arkansas who visited Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar wrote in their report at the beginning of October 2003 that they expected 120 reports daily from the 69 intelligence teams on the field, but receive up to 30 reports which are mostly dated and useless.
According to the IFIMES International Institute the data on the number of terrorists are inaccurate as regards the national and political appurtenance of rebels in Iraq. Independent analysts estimate the number of foreign soldiers among them (prior to the union of the two organisations, JunudAllah and Usudbetween) to be between 850 and 1.000. If another 5.000 former Iraqi soldiers and agents are added to that number the total number of active sympathizers in the Sunnite triangle with logistics tasks is between 20.000 and 30.000.
Another concern is the increasing number of new terrorists. According to the data of Israeli informers foreign terrorists prevail in number over domestic terrorists. This was confirmed by the Syria's Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa in the »Sunday Telegraph« interview on 26 October 2003. The USUD organisation which is located in Syria is in charge of illegal border crossing to Iraq. Another direction from where the terrorists come is Iran. The members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have recorded Al Kaida fugitives from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Chechenia in Mashad from where they are taken over by the Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi group which hands them over to the Ansar al-Islam organisation, an Al Kaida unit located in the north of Iraq, which was defeated in a joint American–Kurd operation from 22 to 25 March 2003, and from the north they continue towards their destination, i.e. the Sunnite triangle.
THE AMERICAN CONFUSION
The American confusion comes from Washington where the disagreement between the State Department and the National Security Council on one side and the Pentagon on the other side is more than obvious. In critical moments this disagreement turns into a rift when the President of the USA has to interfere in order to cool down the passions. The dispute between Pentagon and the National Security council at the beginning of October was won by the latter. The President appointed Condoleezza Rice head of the Iraq Stabilization Group. This confusion is already reflected on the field. In these circumstances Ambassador Bremer replaced General Jay Garner as the head of the CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) which is responsible to the Pentagon.
Since Paul Bremer took over the chief position in the CPA, terrorist attacks have drastically increased. The CPA directly administers the state and the state institutions (the administrative council, the ministerial council). However, while in the civil matters it has achieved excellent results (renewal of infrastructure, monetary policy, health care etc.), it has no clear security strategy regarding the situation in Iraq.
In this American confusion the Pandora's box has been opened and every day more and more evil spirits of terrorism escape while the hope remains at the bottom of the box.
As the solution to the present situation, the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) proposes:
Iraq should not be the subject of pre-election low blows between Republicans and Democrats. The victory of the USA in Afghanistan and Iraq will definitely be regarded as justified and rightful in the American history.
CPA should be divided into the civil and the military department; we propose General Jay Garner as head of the military department and the forming of groups for combating terrorism composed of experienced experts from renowned institutes such as: AEI - American Enterprise Institute and JINSA - Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.
The Iraq Stabilization Group headed by Condoleezza Rice should be of consultative nature.
The ideas of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to establish an agency for ideological fight against terrorism should be realised.
An efficient Iraqi professional and depoliticized army and intelligence agency should be established. The training of such units should be based on the American »Equip and Train« programme used for training the army of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation.
Known companies in the field of security from the USA, Israel and Turkey should be hired for safeguarding the vital facilities such as the pipelines.
A regional conference of Iraqi neighbouring countries should be convened to discuss the efficient control of borders.
The »Middle East Partnership Initiative – MEPI« should be activated.
In view of the fact that Iraq has become the field for combating terrorism, the IFIMES International Institute proposed to the members of ICTAC (International Counter-Terrorism Academy Community) that the IFIMES department located in Baghdad be the head office of ICTAC during the first year so that the different institutes, universities and corporations can exchange opinions and look for answers to open questions on the field.
ICTAC - International Counter-Terrorism Academy Community - is headed by ICT - International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism from Herzlia, Israel. The IFIMES International Institute is the co-founder of ICTAC.
